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Technology Stocks : Forecross Corporation : Y/2000 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: J.D.R. who wrote (985)5/8/1998 8:27:00 PM
From: BrooklynDave  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1654
 
This stock has traveled up and down with speculation that they will benefit from the potentially HUGE year 2000 business which, in my opinion, is also very speculative.
Having been involved early on and watching significent gains disappear I am currently out and sitting on the sidelines.
My thinking is if the rumors are true about a move-over to an American Stock Exchange (I'll believe it when I see it) that is the prudent time to again take a position at whatever that price may be.
Dealing with any companies on the Vancouver Stock Exchange are beyond risky, beyond gambling, just plain out-right stupid.
If this is indeed a real-deal investment, what's the difference of enjoying a ride upwards when some of what is being contiplated here on this thread when some of the "story" actually occurs.
As my dad always said, "Better a shorter gain than a long face."
Comments?



To: J.D.R. who wrote (985)5/9/1998 9:47:00 PM
From: Ruyi  Respond to of 1654
 
JDR: Nothing seems to please guys like you. When they don't get the work, you guys call it a scam. When they do start to get the work, it's just "overflow". I just don't understand that thinking.

S.C.B., N.C.R., E.D.S., TRW/BDM, Keanne, Cyber, etc. all have apparently run tests through FRX factory past 3 months. Now starting to run code. My understanding is that 3 million lines of code recently announced are a direct result of positive testing. My understanding of the reason why the dollar amounts are not given is that this is a very small portion of the contracts to be awarded.

With Forecross in a quiet period, the company is not allowed to make forward-looking income statements. As far as margins, my understanding, talking to Avalon Research and Forecross's SEC Form 10, margins are as good or better than industry standards - 40% or better. Because of the obscure languages they can process, they will be able to demand big dollars per line.

I do agree, however, business has been slower coming than anticipated. This is not unique to Forecross but is common among all Y2K vendors. Most analysts believe the work will now extend past the year 2003.

Forecross, contrary to what you say, is a unique vendor in a very small category. A factory-based solution, fully automated over a large number of platforms and languages with cutting edge technology in foreign languages.

There has been a great deal of skepticism because Forecross's technology is so superior to other vendors. After extensive testing by the aforementioned companies, the work is starting to roll in. My understanding is that Forecross is doing the work in about 10% of the anticipated time.

I really believe that if Forecross came public today you would all be majorly excited. Just because we were all early, doesn't mean we were all wrong. Let's start looking forward, not backward.

Lastly, Forecross just named number 20 out of 100 of the fastest growing public companies in the SanFrancisco Bay area at an awards dinner hosted by Coopers and Lybrand as reported in the SanFrancisco Business Times May 1, 1998. They were in good company. Ascend Communications was #3, Oracle #72, Wells Fargo #77, People Soft #25.



To: J.D.R. who wrote (985)5/11/1998 4:28:00 PM
From: Rick Voteau  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1654
 
J.D.R., Could you please expand on what you mean by an "also ran".

No secret I hold a reasonable number of shares of Forecross. My understanding from people outside of Forecross is that it has superior technology both in finding dates with minimal errors and in separating any converted code into separate files for later access.

Additionally, I have not seen announcements where BDM, EDS, Ciber, etc. have signed up with other Y2K factory solutions. This further solidified my independent research. Have you seen other announcements with the "also rans". I'm not being facetious. Please post them.

Hey, I have made mistakes in the past and if this is a mistake then it will no doubt be one that I will have a tough time recovering from as I am very heavily invested in Forecross. Everything I see says the only thing I was wrong on was the timing of the companies to fix their Y2K problem. This hurt Forecross and others. My belief is that it will help Forecross more than it has hurt as many will have to use automated solutions because there won't be enough time for manual conversions. Note that Forecross has increased staff to 65 people. If the company were about to go out of business, or not be able to cover their obligations, I doubt that they would hire additional people. Even a scam has its limits. Would IT folks really sign up with a company that is going out of business especially for options worth $11 per share.


Risk to me is not price volatility but risk of the ability of a company to increase earnings. I see a company with large earnings potential so while I see risk due to negative momentum, I don't see earnings risk.

Please help me understand more about your also ran statement.
I would also appreciate further understanding on how the margins aren't great. Since the software is developed, and the cost of sales is small, the variable costs are small which to me means the gross margins are huge. Once you pass the break even point which no doubt has increased with increased staff, it seems like a sale is 80% + profit.

Again, what you are writing is very counter to what I see. Even though I disagree, the negative posts aren't all bad because they have made me dig deeper than I would have ever dug. I'm not selling which means the deeper I dug, I haven't found anything to change my mind.