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To: Robert Einstein who wrote (13719)5/9/1998 3:11:00 PM
From: Andrew Vance  Respond to of 17305
 
*AV*--At these prices I would consider CYMI since DUV will have a big break out in the next 12 months, at most. As far as which stock for $100K with the maximum Capital gains, I have to think about it.

If I had the answer on the tip of my tongue, I would most certainly convert all my portfolio over to that one stock. I need to balance your timeframe against the High tech recvoery period. The stock I choose might not be in this sector if I believe the recovery is going to be more protracted. Also, the stock that I choose will not be one for maximum profit or gains for the year since it would entail a great deal of risk. For instance, NPRO is supposedly going to be a $30 stock in December if you listen ti its employees for a 15X profit but ALYD is supposed to be close to $45 due to late year expected revenues and earnings. This would only be a 3X increase in value. If I were to just use these two stocks, I would pick ALYD because it is the less risky of the two.

You put me on the spot with your second request since any good Bio tech stock could do an ENMD at any time. If that were to happen, I would take profits when presented and then go to cash prior to the December target date.

I will not straddle the fence here but reserve the right to give serious attention to your question by waiting until tomorrow not to post it. Even then, 2 days worth of research may not be a fair situation either. But I will give it my best shot, weighing risk and potential gain.

Andrew



To: Robert Einstein who wrote (13719)5/11/1998 11:05:00 AM
From: Andrew Vance  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 17305
 
*AV*-Sorry for the delay (Mother's Day took a wee bit longer than I anticipated<GG>). After careful and short consideration (a few days), I have come up with your answer.

In the universe of stocks that I cover, DELL looks to be the best stock for maximizing Capital Gains by year end. If past perfromance is a predictor of future performance, this would be my most conservative pick.

The list of also-rans in this race:

INTC-new Pentium II processors that should be released in the fall could give this stock a boost. But, what affect will IDTI have on the bottom line if they are successful with the WinChip.

IDTI-proced very attractively and they have just come out of 8 quarters of re-engineering their company from the ground up. Just start to ramp up the WinChip and could give INTC a run for their money on the low end business for the Holiday season. The SRAM business has taken new form with them via ZBT acceptance.

NPRO-too risky to be given the "nod" here. However, it is rumored that this stock could reach $30 by the end of the year. I think it could revisit $10 on some good news or turnaround in some of its bad luck relative to BMY. This would be a 5X gain.

ALYD-the year 2000 debacle has got to finally get some serious exposure by the market pundits along with some juicy contracts. Everything I read here seems to indicate a $75M year for this company. With the last 2 quarters totalling less that $20M, this means s helluva second half has to be achieved in order to meet the projections. This could also be a 2X to 3X if everything goes right.

There you have it, the best of the bunch plus the 4 heirs to the throne for this year. Again, this is my opinion and is subject to change as market conditions change. The market is too dynamic to plant cash in one place and let it sit for 7 months. If any stock makes a good move, profits should be taken and a new candidate should be found to help maximize gains for the year.

Andrew