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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3435)	5/9/1998 9:51:00 AM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Zeev, Painful and scary stuff, made all the more so now that I live in the region and know several Indonesians. Some of these are Chinese businessmen and I fear for them. Others are laborers and maids who wonder what is happening back home in terms of families. I also fear that we have not seen the worst in Malaysia both in terms of devaluation of the ringiit and business slow down. There is still a banking issue here and much bad debt that will take a year to surface. The exchange rate is a short term boon to me as I am still on a dollar based cash flow but I am already seeing the result in terms of reduced services, increased prices, etc. Besides, several friends here have serious business problems. I have seen some predictions re: the Ringiit. Worse case scenarios say 5 to the dollar. But there is resistance at 4 and the most bullish say it won't break through that for any extended period. Most interesting is the long term analysis saying that it will never see 2.50 again. I will not be surprised to see it approaching 5 especially if the fed raises interest rates to cool things down a bit. That, IMO, will extend the recession here substantially. But then, what if they don't? Best, Stitch