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Technology Stocks : Year 2000 (Y2K) Embedded Systems & Infrastructure Problem -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: C.K. Houston who wrote (358)	5/9/1998 5:06:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 618

[EPRI] Fred Swirbul visited recent EPRI comments; Harlans reaction to it 'I just returned from a Y2K conference sponsored by the Electric Power Research Group (EPRI). Held in Dallas, Texas. Over 75 organizations were represented, mostly electric utilities. Other organizations are allowed to join EPRI's Y2K project (at $75K each). Oil and gas processors/refineries were the second largest group represented. Like anything else, there was both good news, and bad news. Good news/bad news. Most everyone had completed or was close to completing their initial assessments, and some preliminary testing has been accomplished by most organizations. Unfortunately, only about 10% of the organizations had completed significant portions of their testing. Bad news/good news. Of those organizations that had completed significant testing, they were finding failure rates in the 10% range. The good news is that for embedded COMPONENTS, not a single "fatal" failure was found. Zip. Zero. Nada. I am calling anything with less computing power than a PLC (programable logic controller) an embedded component. Yes, the dates might be wrong, but the smart field transmitters still measured properly, the digital trend recorders still plotted trends, and the digital meters still displayed correct numbers (except for the date). Nothing at this level just froze up, so far. It is starting to appear that it takes a fairly high level embedded SYSTEM to really screw up and lock up. A DCS (Digital Control System) or DAS (Data Aquisition System) can possibly fail in this manner. Even if 50% of all high level digital sytems have a Y2K problem (ie one of their many components is not Y2K compliant), it is starting to look like only one in ten will fail so bad as to trip a plant, whether it is a eletric plant or a refinery. While the facts are just starting to come in, this seems to mean that most electric plants will only have a few systems that must be fixed before 12/31/99, so that they can still keep on producing power. IMHO, this does not appear to be insurmountable. If the Y2K problem is going to cause world wide hardships, it will happen with (most) of the lights on. Fred Swirbul Subject: Electric Utilities - The power will be there Date: Sat, 09 May 1998 04:50:52 GMT From: Fred Swirbul <fswirbul@ix.netcom.com> Organization: Netcom Newsgroups: comp.software.year-2000 ________ Reaction from Harlan Smith: 'Fred Swirbul <fswirbul@ix.netcom.com> wrote in article <6j0n76$6l@dfw-ixnews7.ix.netcom.com>... Good report, Thanks. Some questions and comments. C1 - The data presented seems to agree with what you appear to have been saying all along, that the problems will occur in devices with complexity of PLCs and above, thereby implying that there will be thousands of corrections to be made, rather than millions. C2 - Even so, as Rick says, it doesn't take very many failures to disrupt the power grid and only a small percentage of the 9,000 utilties were represented at the EEPRI conference although I presume a much larger percentage of generating capacity. C3 - "Unfortunately, only about 10% of the organizations had completed significant portions of their testing." What do they need to accelerate this this testing? If you will pardon the expression, it's getting pretty late in the game to be "in the dark" about the nature and scope of the problem. Q! - Are all people attending the conference planning to do advanced clock testing at each generating station? Q2 - Are the majority of the nuclear power people optimistic about completing remediation per the NRC time table? Subject: Re: Electric Utilities - The power will be there Date: 09 May 1998 05:08:25 EDT From: "Harlan Smith" <hwsmith.nowhere@cris.com> Organization: Paperless Newsgroups: comp.software.year-2000 References: 1

To: C.K. Houston who wrote (358)	5/9/1998 5:11:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Respond to of 618

[EPRI] INTERESTING! Rick Cowles' comment to Fred Swirbul on EPRI conference Rick Cowles to Fred Swirbul: 'By your count, 75 of the most Y2k enlightened power companies out of 9000 in the U.S. were at the conference. I'm still preaching awareness to the other 8925.' _________ 'On Sat, 09 May 1998 04:43:49 GMT, Fred Swirbul <fswirbul@ix.netcom.com> wrote: >I just returned from a Y2K conference sponsored by the >Electric Power Research Group (EPRI). Held in Dallas, Texas. >Over 75 organizations were represented, mostly electric utilities. >Other organizations are allowed to join EPRI's Y2K project >(at $75K each). Oil and gas processors/refineries were the >second largest group represented. I would have liked to have been there, Fred - unfortunately, duty called at other locations... >Like anything else, there was both good news, and bad news. >Good news/bad news. Most everyone had completed or was close to >completing their initial assessments, and some preliminary testing >has been accomplished by most organizations. Unfortunately, only >about 10% of the organizations had completed significant portions >of their testing. Was PJM, NYPP, NERC, or any of the other regional power pool operators present? >Bad news/good news. Of those organizations that had completed >significant testing, they were finding failure rates in the 10% >range. The good news is that for embedded COMPONENTS, not a >single "fatal" failure was found. Zip. Zero. Nada. I am calling >anything with less computing power than a PLC (programable logic >controller) an embedded component. Yes, the dates might be wrong, >but the smart field transmitters still measured properly, the digital >trend recorders still plotted trends, and the digital meters still >displayed correct numbers (except for the date). Nothing at this >level just froze up, so far. This doesn't surprise me. As with Harlan, all along, it's been pretty clear that problems at a 'chip level' are going to be in a teensy minority. The problem with 'bad dates' at that level are probably not going to be seen at that level, but as is typical with bad data, at a higher level in the control system (say, level 2 or 2.5). I've never really expected to see anything at ISA level 0 freezing anything up. >It is starting to appear that it takes a fairly high level embedded >SYSTEM to really screw up and lock up. A DCS (Digital Control >System) or DAS (Data Aquisition System) can possibly fail in >this manner. Even if 50% of all high level digital sytems have a >Y2K problem (ie one of their many components is not Y2K compliant), >it is starting to look like only one in ten will fail so bad as to >trip a plant, whether it is a eletric plant or a refinery. Taking the above at face value (for the sake of argument), one in 10 plants dropping out on a regional distribution system with, say, 200 plants is 20 plants down simultaneously. That's way more than enough to introduce enough voltage and frequency disturbances in the distribution system to cause wild and crazy things to happen (ass/u/me that the regional grid is totally Y2k ready with no problems to begin with). >While the facts are just starting to come in, this seems to mean that >most electric plants will only have a few systems that must be fixed >before 12/31/99, so that they can still keep on producing power. IMHO, >this does not appear to be insurmountable. If the Y2K problem is going >to cause world wide hardships, it will happen with (most) of the lights on. It's a matter of orders of magnitude, Fred. By your count, 75 of the most Y2k enlightened power companies out of 9000 in the U.S. were at the conference. I'm still preaching awareness to the other 8925. NERC is just warming up to the issue. Regional system operators aren't in the game yet. Please help me out - why should I feel any better today than I did yesterday? -- Rick Cowles (Public PGP key on request) Now Shipping From AMAZON.COM: "Electric Utilities and Y2k" - The Book euy2k.com ___ Subject: Re: Embedded Systems Conference in Dallas Date: Sat, 09 May 1998 02:50:03 -0400 From: rcowles@waterw.com (Rick Cowles) Organization: What's that? Newsgroups: comp.software.year-2000 References: 1 , 2

To: C.K. Houston who wrote (358)	5/10/1998 3:49:00 AM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 618

[UTILITIES] Cowles comments on number of utilities in the US 'On Sun, 10 May 1998 00:30:53 GMT, scottd@nbnet.nb.ca (Don Scott) wrote: > >Rick Cowles mentioned in another post that attendance at an Embedded >Systems conference was disappointing because only "75 of the most >Y2k enlightened power companies out of 9000 in the U.S." were in >attendance. > >Are there really 9,000 power companies either generating or >distributing power in the United States? Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov There's an absolute wealth of information on EIA's site, but you have to be willing to dig and read through some verrrryyy tedious reports. Out of that 9000, the vast majority are primarily transmission only. American Public Power Association (APPA) and the National Rural Electric Coop Association (NRECA) combined represent about 5000 municipal power authorities and electric co-ops. The U.S. has a very non-centralized electric power industry. And each individual electric company relies on a bevy of others to deliver the juice. I honestly don't know how the Canadian electric industry is structured, so can't speak for our neighbors in the Great White North. -- Rick Cowles (Public PGP key on request) Now Shipping From AMAZON.COM: "Electric Utilities and Y2k" - The Book euy2k.com ____ Subject: Re: To Rick C. - 9,000 power companies? From: rcowles@waterw.com (Rick Cowles) Date: 1998/05/09 Message-ID: <3554fd0c.6630815@enews.newsguy.com> Newsgroups: comp.software.year-2000 [More Headers] [Subscribe to comp.software.year-2000]