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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Trocchi who wrote (8603)	5/9/1998 11:59:00 AM
From: poodle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Hi, Bob. "Question to you... Are you long, short or on the sidelines with ZONA." Complex quest. I have been short, long, several times. I lost anyway. Now I am on the sidewalk and waiting for NDA filling. I agree with all your arguments and they should work at some point. I had additional reasons to be short and emph. was different. 1. After reding of all relevant sci. literature I could find I have got an impression that oral phentolamine should have low efficiency/side effect ratio. I also got an impression that experts had some quest. about this approach. 2. ZONA had no any patent for oral pills. What happened after that? 1. J. Urol. paper was published. 2. Patent was issued. I have a lot of quest. about this documents,but looks like 95% of investors do not read them anyway. That means: event/PR driven investors (type2) should buy after these documents appeared. If they sold because of the same reason I did, of course (shorts or longs doesn't really matter). So ZONA should return to the same range it was before Assensio PR when many investors realized the problems. Middle 30th-middle 40th. That was my logic at low 20th. The fact that we are at 38 does not mean that the logic was correct, however. A lot of other factors should also be considered. However, all other factors could be taken both ways. Viagra hits the market, too late for Vasomax. Or, Viagra has shown great market potential so Vasomax has huge potential too. Viagra has sideeffect, that's an advantage for Vasomax. Or, after craz. about ED drugs pass, people may think a little about the real price (I do not mean $ price. I would ask patients at 70th to run at least one mile to prove that "sex induction" is safe for them. I am affraid that we may see some bodies soon). W/o sci. publication in reasonable journals and,even more obviously, w/o patent, ZONA was absolute "short to cash-per-share". Now the low quality of patent and low efficiency/side eff. ratio of oral phentolamine have to be shown to investors. When and how it could be done (if it could be done) is hard to predict. Mngt integrity... Yes, I have a lot of quest. Recent problem: too many too different numbers. But it is too far yet to a la "crook" conclusion, which I would personally leave to the court. Have a nice day.