To: PartyTime who wrote (6823 ) 5/9/1998 11:54:00 AM From: PartyTime Respond to of 18444
More related info, from Red Herring: GROWING PAINS As the Web expands, technology and infrastructure try to keep pace with lofty expectations. By Andrew P. Madden Discussions about the technological impediments facing the Web tend to be somewhat inchoate. The need to open up the pipelines and compress data further is well recognized but inconclusively addressed. At one extreme are those who believe the Internet will resourcefully avoid painting itself into a corner, and at the other are those who await its harrowing collapse. In the early stages of the Web's life, analysts agree across the board that solutions and remedies to infrastructural challenges are largely speculative. Andrea Williams of Volpe, Welty & Company acknowledges that there are looming questions. "That's why you bet on the companies that work with the infrastructure today," she says. "You don't know when these issues are going to get resolved." Williams is partial to site developers that are creating the most compelling content without overstepping the technical capabilities of the average user. When technical capabilities are exceeded, users become annoyed. "There is only frustration with the content that doesn't work. We will make progress with the technology issues, but people become irked when you have publishers who push the envelope. People are sitting at home with 28.8 modems, and it just isn't working." Companies like American Cybercast, Headbone, and Sandbox are using content effectively, according to Williams. "Text-driven episodic stories are an ideal form of content, given the bandwidth and latency limitations of the Net." Williams notes that just as it took time for consumers to replace their turntables with compact disc players, it will also take time for consumers to reach the next level of Web complexity. "The quality of the content isn't compelling enough to make me want to go out and spend a few thousand more dollars to get all this extra hardware and software," she says. But Williams also observes that while technical impediments persist, there is no shortage of effort or resourcefulness to address the problems. "There are so many people out there working on the technology solutions and the content. We will overcome many of the issues that we worry about today." As an example, Williams points to the brisk pace of browser development at Netscape and Microsoft. "They are both making lots of progress with each iteration of their browsers, and they recognize the importance of making the Web easy to use." And in the end, contends Williams, ease of use is what attracts and retains users. Betty Lyter of Montgomery Securities has a problem with the spate of recent coverage exploring technical impediments to the Web. She applies curious logic to the matter: Technical impediments exist -- and will always exist -- and therefore become something of a nonissue, unworthy of scrutiny. "The problems are always going to be there. You could write an article this afternoon about people's frustrations with VCRs and how difficult they are to program -- or you can get over it." One wonders if the more than 6 million users of America Online were able to "get over" the technical impediment (an 18-hour outage) to which they were recently subjected. Lyter believes content developers should balance their approach to the Web. On the one hand, they should push the limits. "Content developers have to be able to experiment and create things that test the boundaries of some users' modems and connection speeds." But on the other hand, Lyter states, "content developers have to make sure they don't put their most important information in the parts of the site that are accessible to only the highest echelon of users." As for any frustrations that users might experience on the Web, Lyter concludes that "the trade-offs are worth making." Trade-offs, indeed, if Gregory Wester of the Yankee Group is accurate in his predictions. He recently authored a report that evaluates, in part, the effects of the rising demand for connection to the Internet (see chart, page 14). The report studies the resources of Internet service providers and concludes that over the next several years, as connectivity increases, businesses and consumers will continue to experience loss of service and slow transmission and will have to wait for greater bandwidth. In particular, Wester notes that approximately 50 percent of the business market is supported by regional ISPs, which may buckle as the number of connected businesses increases. "Small regional ISPs may not be able to handle the upgrades and needs of the businesses they are serving." Larger players like UUNet, PSINet, AT&T, MCI, and Bolt, Beranek & Newman will be responsible for building out much of the infrastructure because the smaller ISPs will lack the financial resources. While Internet users will occasionally encounter frustrations, Wester says, "the good news is that this is a sign of pent-up demand."