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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (11461)	5/9/1998 12:36:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116844

Euro seen at $1.14 by end April 1999 09:23 a.m. May 08, 1998 Eastern By Karen Iley LONDON, May 8 (Reuters) - Currency experts expect a sturdy single European currency versus the dollar in 12 months' time, fuelled by a likely monetary tightening in Europe and little change in U.S. interest rates, Reuters monthly foreign exchange poll showed on Friday. The median average from 46 analysts put the euro at 1.1400 dollars at the end of April next year. In last month's poll, the end-March prediction was $1.1043. The Federal Open Market Committee meets on May 19 to consider U.S. interest rates but no change is expected. ''We see no rise in the FOMC so there's not much support for the dollar. There may be more space for the European Central Bank to raise rates because of growth out of core Europe picking up speed. The ECB might want to raise rates so we should find more support for the euro,'' said Allesandra dal Colle, currency economist at Banca Commerciale Italiana in Milan. Growth in the United States would slow leaving little scope for interest rate rises to boost the dollar, while European growth would take off, prompting a tighter monetary stance in the euro-area, economists said. ''We're bullish on the euro for the same reasons as we're bullish on Europe. We would be looking for stronger European currencies versus the dollar in any case,'' said Craig Larimer, managing director, international market analysis at First Chicago. He forecast an end-April rate of $1.29 -- the highest in the poll. The forecasts -- collected on May 5 and 6 -- ranged from $1.04 to $1.29. But economists reckoned this wide range was due to differing assumptions on the euro's kick-off rate on January 1, 1999. Having said that, even those economists at the bottom of the range were fairly upbeat on the outlook for the new currency. ''We think the euro will start its life as an appreciating currency based on the interest rate differential between core Europe and the United States,'' said Paine Webber international economist David Brickman. His forecast of $1.04 was the lowest in the poll, but he put that down to his assumptions for the starting euro rate. Under the terms of the Maastricht Treaty, the euro will kick off at parity with the ECU at the close of trade on December 31. But the ECU and the euro are different animals in terms of the type and number of composite currencies. ''Dollar/ECU spot includes sterling and the Danish crown,'' he said. ''Sterling makes up over 13 percent of the basket so if you take sterling out, you have to get a revaluation of ECU.'' His forecasts pencilled in a theoretical ECU of less than $1.00. ''Sterling is artificially buoying the ECU. The rates have got to converge, simply because you're removing sterling and the Danish crown from the equation... There would be an arbitrage play if it wasn't removed,'' Brickman said. ^REUTERS@ Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (11461)	5/9/1998 1:55:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116844

Excellent insight George, I've been mulling over the same question. My theory is that the crash will not be FIAT related, but rate or inflation related. I see the b bands on crude tightening and I think it's ready for a big move, as many other commodities. Platinum and Palladium are vital to the auto industry Benzler is gonna need them catalytic convertors and will have to pay dearly for the metal if Russia's supply is dried up. I think the secondary crash will come in Jan 99, when the y2k bug is really evident and the Europeans sell dollars and the EURO becomes the world standard (yes this is hard to imagine, but now Japan and Europe are the lender of last resort) So if this case plays out, Gold stocks will make a nice trading vehicle. In January 99, we can be the 99er's -g- I don't see a peak war happening here, I think war will break out after we get in the depression stage. With the market at this level of overvaluation we don't really need war or any big dramatic event to topple it. It vitally dependent on absolute goldilocks perfection, just an uptick in rates to 6.25 puts it in a tailspin. Proverb for the day: The fining pot is for silver, and the furnace for gold, but the Lord trieth the hearts 17:3 If this plays out, a lot of hearts are gonna be tried, and it's gonna get really hot in the furnace -g- bwdik, bobby b