SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Alomex who wrote (13244)5/10/1998 1:41:00 AM
From: Moominoid  Respond to of 213177
 
I've updated my previous chart on my crazy theory about Apple's stock price and added a new one:

This one shows the correlation between returns to AAPL stock (in USD terms) and the USD/AUD exchange rate:

cres.anu.edu.au

This one shows the actual and predicted returns to AAPL:

cres.anu.edu.au

Of course this isn't a complete or proper model of the stock price it just shows an interesting correlation that is holding up pretty well.

The main factors affecting the USD/AUD exchange rate are believed to be:

1. Strength of US economy
2. Strength of East Asian economies and the Yen/USD exchange rate
3. Interest rate differential between US and Australia
4. Commodity prices
5. Residual effects of Australian economic strength.

Better models could probably be created by just focusing on some of these underlying factors (ie not 5).

Note these correlations are much stronger for AAPL than for MSFT or any other shares I have tried analyzing.

David