To: Tim Luke who wrote (2787 ) 5/9/1998 1:45:00 PM From: Kevin Trevillian Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 8242
Yeah, sure is a lot of noise and smoke around here. I think there is only one major question that needs to be answered for serious investors in this company. It is not what the MM's are doing, as they are doing what they always do regardless of what anyone posts. It is not what will be the share price next week, or how the web site roll-out will go (it will go fine - people roll out web sites all the time and the Proxicom people are pros) It is not whether they have filed with the SEC yet or when they will list on the naz, or whether the news release got flubbed (happens all the time). We all know that the internet is great and exciting and it's the future and how fast it's growing and everybody loves it etc. But the main question that is still unanswered is whether established businesses are ready trust it and commit to it as a business tool. Put another way, it is a question of timing. We can all see whats coming, sort of, but when theres a lot of $ on the line people are suspicious of changes in their cages. If PNLK pulls the trigger too early, before the 'paradigm shift' penetrates the brains of business people, then they will at most become a sort of curious niche player, like Itex. If on the other hand they wait too long, they will be run over by the bigger players who have much more in the way of resources. If their timing is right, and I am betting that it is, then there will come a time when it hits a critical mass and businesses will feel they HAVE to sign up, or become dinosaurs. If the financials that Glenn put out the other day are an accurate indication of what they are really expecting, then they are looking for in excess of 1000 business sign- ups per month. Can they do it? Well, the idea is great (everybody loves it). Their execution appears by every indication to be top drawer. Is the import/export world ready for it ? I look forward to watching this story unfold. I would like to pose an issue to those of you who, like myself, consider yourselves to serious longterm investors in this company. That is the issue of takeovers. If PNLK does indeed take off, do you want to wake up one morning to find your PNLK shares now have become AOL shares, or SEEK, or worse yet some poorly managed internet or software company trying to buy themselves out of a hole? At present PNLK with its hopefully successful business plan and adequate but limited resources, might make a sweet and juicy plum for somebody. If the takeover is unwanted, it would certainly not be in the best interest of the shareholders. The most common way to defend against this is the 'poison pill' option. ( typically, in the event of an unwanted takeover attempt, the company issues warrants to print new shares and offer them to existing shareholders at a reasonable discount to market value ) This makes it more expensive and difficult for the raiding company to get a controlling position. There are several downsides to this however, since this has a dilutive effect on the share value, and the investors still have to pony up a substantial amount of cash to maintain their proportionate share balance. Also, the shareholders lose a substantial amount of leverage over the management, which becomes important in the event that shareholders believe that management is not adequately representing their interests. Still in all, it may be something worth thinking about, especially if it can be implemented for a specified time, then repealed by majority vote if necessary. I am not leaning one way or the other about this yet, as I don't have any feel yet for Mr. Collardeau and the rest of the board of directors. But I don't think it's too early to start thinking about these matters, anyway. What are your opinions?