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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sector Investor who wrote (46421)5/10/1998 12:05:00 AM
From: Greg Jung  Respond to of 61433
 
Here it is for Cisco. Actually the idealised model
is close to actual numbers (see "backtrend earnings") if
all acquisition charges are forgiven.



Cisco Communications
Earnings dilution worksheet
Assume: 40% Total earnings yearly growth
Assume: 4.2% dilution/year
Results in: 34.4 Forward PE Multiplier
#SHARES $Inc. EPS Backtrend earnings
4/26/97 1032.5 352.3 0.34 352.3
7/26/97 1043.2 383.2 0.37 PEG=1 $$ Cash 382.2
10/25/97 1056.6 415.7 0.39 Value (2) per share 420.4
1/24/98 1062.5 457.3 0.43 68.2 1.00 (3) 444.2
4/25/98 1076.3 483.2 0.45 73.4 (1) 1.45
7/25/98 1087.4 525.6 0.48 79.0 1.93
10/24/98 1098.7 571.7 0.52 85.1 2.45
1/23/99 1110.0 621.9 0.56 91.6 3.01
4/24/99 1121.5 676.5 0.60 98.6 3.61
7/24/99 1133.1 735.8 0.65 106.2 4.26
10/23/99 1144.8 800.4 0.70 114.3 4.95
1/22/00 1156.6 870.7 0.75 123.1 5.70
4/22/00 1168.6 947.1 0.81 132.5 6.51
7/22/00 1180.7 1030.2 0.87 142.6 7.38
10/21/00 1192.9 1120.6 0.94
1/20/01 1205.2 1218.9 1.01
4/21/01 1217.7 1325.9 1.09
7/21/01 1230.3 1442.3 1.17

Notes:
0. Data taken from SI profiles table, only. Condition of finances
cannot be derived from a single measure, nor are "earnings" a well-defined quantity in many cases.
1. Previous four actual earnings are listed.
Compares well to back-trended. So well, in fact, that careful calibration
of income statements is presumed to take place.

2. full value" is calculated as

(Forward PE factor) X (forward earnings) / (anticipated #shares)


3. Cash is accrued from earnings, with 4% annual after tax interest