To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (19237 ) 5/9/1998 6:56:00 PM From: jtechkid Read Replies (1) | Respond to
brian, i have read 80% of the reports on amat and most are very positive and they think the turnaround is coming righr now. i mean just look at the new recomendations-goldman, robertson stephens, solomon, h&q, advest, just to name a few. only real negative is merrill and a couple a small firms. these firms have committed a lot of new clients money at this point. my point is their is a lot more risks in the stocks now then upside potential. for example , i loaded up on klic at 17 in 1996, thought that was the bottom because the stock was down dramatically, it bottomed out at 9 dollers two months later. no big deal because i love klic and i sold it in 1997 at 47dollers. but i was not to happy to watch my investment get cut in half in two months. if your a long term player you should be fine and amat drops to 25 no big deal. i think people will be find but people who bought klic at 28 a month ago are whining and that thread is dead.more important i see no upside in amat since we are at the beginning of the downcycle. also , just because amat rebounded in 1996 doesn;t mean that will happen exactly the same this time. i believe at some point investors and mutual funds are going to be sick of holding these companies as the bad news will just keep going and as merril said all these companies will be touching their lows by the summer as that article pointed out investors as usual do not understand the semi business and it usually gets a lot worse before it will even hint of an upside. i mean amat a couple months ago said they would not have any layoffs. amat said that japan was the wild card for any chance of upside this year. amat before that said book to bill will not beak one at least till the fourth quarter. well, instead of staring at the stock market and praying everything stays up or the fools hold the stock up why don;t you listen to the warnings of the company. obviously, its worse than what they thought because their cutting jobs-which is the last thing they want to do but if they don't imo they could lose a lot of money. jif japan a wild card you just lost a fortune in vegas because you out of luck.amat a great company but in my history for whatever reason a very bad forecaster. to give you example in the fourth quarter amat said regarding asia all they can say about it is they see it on t.v but really has not effected business. well ,three months later amat said asia is hurting and told wall street to cut next quarter estimates by amost 15 cents. i sure amat lawyers will tell them they better be careful what they say because the ambulance chasers lawyers will be looking at their past statements.
