To: Z man who wrote (5467 ) 5/10/1998 11:40:00 AM From: stan s. Respond to of 7054
NASDAQ chart and some comments...this will be followed by several ACRT charts. A daily chart of the Nasdaq. Nothing ominous in the short term chart and in fact, Friday's labor report gave it not only a reprieve but a boost.... The daily chart is somewhat positive, for a while....geocities.com Do note, however, the 50 day MA and the two recent 15% corrections when this average was broken to the downside. (By the way the 15% refers to the peaks before the downturn....NOT the downside once the 50 MA was broken). A 15%er from the most recent peak would bring it to around 1630....a break a little below the 200 MA....as happened on both previous occasions. These are approximates by the way. Will it happen again?... Take a look... THIS IS AWEEKLY CHART....the data has been compressed into weekly increments....each Candlestick represents a week of statistics....geocities.com Again notice the 2 corrections. By the way each correction was about 3 months in duration. There are fits and starts within these time frames, NOT a continuous downslide....there were many good days and even an occasional good week. These were simply corrections....not bear markets. The top box of momentum indicators suggests we may be nearing another correction. Please note that in a compressed chart these indicators are based on periods rather than days....i.e. the 14 day Williams%R becomes the 14 period etc. Sell signals are generated as the indicators drop below their color coded trigger lines....as they fall out of "overbought territory". Can they pull back up? Of course...for a time, and in fact did so before each previous correction. I would not be surprised to see that occur again. A reprieve might be of limited duration, keep this in mind.biz.yahoo.com This is my view only....a number of these indicators have similar tendencies, admittedly. However, other more conservative indicators, when compressed into periods rather than days, show similar patterns to previous pre-correction charts. Linear regression slope, Times series forecast, MACD etc. It's also of interest to note on this chart as the security begins to dip below the cyan moving average (6 period, weighted) and the cyan dips below the magenta (10 period, weighted). We might be seeing the beginnings of that. In all references, I'm speaking of open and closing prices(fat bodies)...those wicks refer to highs and lows. NOT ALL stocks are severely hurt by these downdrafts (with the exception of the few really vicious days). In fact the market searches harder for good value....it's the topped out, overvalued stocks that get killed. The undervaled, unfairly maligned stocks often become the "smart money" target. Stan