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Technology Stocks : Ballard Power -world leader zero-emission PEM fuel cells -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sid Turtlman who wrote (2552)	5/10/1998 11:07:00 AM
From: Thomas Stewart	Respond to of 5827

Come on, Sid. Two components (literally factors) to consider here: 1) the magnitude of potential future revenues and 2) the probability of attaining those revenues. You focus on the latter and suggest that we bulls are all fooling ourselves by assuming that it is a done deal--100% probability. Not so. Consider that our difference relates also to the former, i.e., the magnitude of potential revenues (or, more specifically profit). This technology, MAY (implies < 100% chance) be about a deep shift in the way power is generated--it MAY be about replacing the power grid as well as the IC engine. Heady stuff, huh? If there were a 100% chance of that happening, and given that Ballard seems to be the technology leader here, I would leverage everything I own to invest further, wouldn't you? As it is, however, I have invested quite enough. "No, I would guess that a huge percentage of the people buying and holding Ballard stock figure that there are no technical or economic problems to solve, the chances of the cars actually being produced on schedule are 100%"

To: Sid Turtlman who wrote (2552)	5/10/1998 12:08:00 PM
From: BMWIN	Respond to of 5827

Regarding the statement "And there are numerous other specs to consider. Efficiency and the cost of the required fuel are important. Ballard's design is fairly efficient, but not so much so that a buyer will necessarily save any money, since the fuel it needs, methanol or hydrogen, cost twice and four times as much as gasoline, respectively, relative to the energy they contain. Contrast that to a gas/electric hybrid like the Toyota Prius, which gets 66 mpg on gasoline. And the Prius is a real car for sale today in Japan, not a paper car that has great specs because it doesn't exist yet.." There are a couple of issues I have with this statement: 1. I can see that the Prius appears to do better on today's valuations of gasoline and hydrogen. However, times change. It appears that there is at least as much effort going on to both reduce the cost of hydrogen as well as develop the processing required to economically reform hydrogen from hydrocarbons. 2. The following was posted in Electrifying Times - "The problem with the Prius is its price. Hybrid technology is so expensive, Toyota is losing money on every Prius sold -- more than 25 percent of the sticker price at $17,000. That price is less than half that of Toyota's electric car but still nearly $8,000 more than the similarly sized Toyota Corolla with more frills." Yes, in today's terms, the Prius is very effective from a gasoline consumption point of view. However, this is still not effective if the cost to purchase such a vehicle is so much more than a conventional vehicle. In my estimation, it all comes down to this. Yes, this is speculation. We are aware of that. However, if one recognizes the upside potential of this type of investment, then one can begin to understand the valuations that currently exist. This is truly a paradigm shift. They don't come often. They don't always come through. However, when they do, their effects are truly world changing...