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To: Alex who wrote (11480)5/10/1998 12:09:00 PM
From: goldsnow  Respond to of 116834
 
Kissinger says hard to see how EMU can succeed
10:43 a.m. May 10, 1998 Eastern
STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger
said it was difficult to see how the European economic and monetary
union could succeed but added it was even more difficult to imagine that
failure would be tolerated.

Kissinger, writing in the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter on Sunday,
said the project would be riddled by conflict between Germany and
France.

''It's difficult to see how the European economic and monetary union
could be a success. It's even more difficult to imagine that a failure
would be allowed,'' he said.

''Navigating correctly through this developing situation will be a
increasing challenge for U.S. foreign policy.''

Harmonizing 11 countries' fiscal policies under a single monetary policy
would be difficult during a period of strong economic growth. However,
during a recession it would be even more complicated.

''If different parts of Europe find themselves in different parts of an
economic cycle, it can be impossible to manage.''

Socialist Europe especially could eventually be confronted with a
dilemma, he said.

''Within the existing parliamentary system, European countries have not
succeeded in reducing the social welfare programmes which has ruined
their ability to compete and aggravated unemployment.''

EMU would eventually be driven to become a political union or towards
dissolution, Kissinger said.

''But the Europe which would result from a collapse of EMU will be
characterised by either extreme leftism or extreme rightism, or a
combination of the two.

''It is in the interest of the United States to stop such a breakdown,
but this does not at all mean that we should give unqualified support to
any type of integration, regardless.''

Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.