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To: Grand Poobah who wrote (12272)	5/10/1998 4:24:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 25814

Big Poobah: ---- RE: but it almost seems like they do a better job of making chips for others than for themselves... & It just doesn't seem to me that their market position is where it should be based on their incredible ability to innovate... Yup I think that is exactly the way I would characterize them - good but should be much much better than good. I'll also quietly add "getting better". ---- Shane.

To: Grand Poobah who wrote (12272)	5/10/1998 4:26:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

I thought this might be interesting: Based on earnings expectations for the next 2 years I lumped the semis in these groups: 1. continuing to perform well (aka the "what correction" group): VTSS, LLTC, ADI, MXIM 2. flattish this FY (-5% to +11%) and very strong rebound (>=35%) next FY: XLNX, LSI, TXN 3. flattish this FY (-2% to +2%) and quite strong next FY (22-28%): ALTR, CUBE 4. huge earnings improvements in one/both of next 2 years (aka hmmm): IRF, IDTC 5. big time sucking wind this FY (< -28%) with s/ rebound next (>52%): UTR, VLSI, MOT, NSM 6. sucking wind this FY (-16%) but modest recovery next year(+22%): INTC 7. losses and more losses (aka percentages are n/a for these): AMD, MU, CRUS, CY --- This translates to: First group - analog - what pain? - we never feel things unless the gen'l economy tanks - aka the steady growers - + special case VTSS Second & Third groups - PLD, DSP, Std Cell - Product transitions or ramp up this year but underlying strength of product lines quite good [in spite of TXN DRAM]. Fourth group: Made a big change last year or got lucky with Centaur... Fifth group: got caught in HDD or communications or commodity products that either did not sell or are going through severe inventory problems. Sixth group: INTC - one number - $1,000... Seventh group: Memory is not a nice place to be in and good idea to produce good yields when competing with INTC. (Not sure about CY.) --- Or even more succintly: Who says semis are uniform? The world is a changing. Now if the market realizes that there are differences. This is not 1996 - at least so far! ---- Interestingly: The first 3 groups have not indicated pushouts in either their fabs or their partners fabs. Groups 5 and 6 have indicated reduced cap. exp. [actually UTR on schedule but using outsourcing less, assuming true for NSM - 10% labor # reduction]. Groups 4 and 7 - I don't know much about - a mixed bag? Unfortunately for the semi-equips in groups 5 and 6, you have 3 of the bigger semiconductor companies in the country - INTC, MOT, NSM. Also, as you mentioned, he who maketh profits will continue to make cap exp continues. He who does not reduceth cap exp. --- Shane.