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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Caroline who wrote (2349)	5/10/1998 9:49:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Respond to of 9523

Caroline, Lilly cups! Here are highlights from the Peabody Report posted on AOL's Motley Fool PFEr Board. The Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board. Invest only after conducting your own research. BigKNY3 __________________________________________________________ The Peabody Report: 5/10/98 Peabody Model Trend Prediction Based on historical PFE patterns, the Peabody Model predicts the following trend direction: PFE reached another Peabody Valley last week (106.75) and is headed higher to a new Peabody Peak. Commentary PFE is becoming more volatile as the future of Viagra specification and sales weigh heavy on the future of the stock price. Any negative news such as the AAO "CYA" press release concerning vision places downward pressure on PFE. Since the AAO information was already included in the Viagra approved package insert, this news provided a buy opportunity. Analysts and brokers are currently underestimating the Viagra sales in 1998 (see the V-Files). These estimates may be revised upward as the 4th week Rxs are announced and the expected NEJM Viagra article is published on Thursday. Since it is based primarily on historical trends and Mr. Peabody "gut feels", the Peabody Model should always be placed in context of the market environments and anticipated news. As evidenced by the mythical Peabody Portfolio (see section below), the Peabody Model works particularly well for PFE investors with a "buy, hold, and buy more at the Valley" investing strategy. New or pfuture PFErs could consider investing 50% immediately and investing the remainder at near Peabody Valleys. Peabody Short-term PForecasts Peabody Short-Term PForecast (5/03/98): PFE: 112.63, DJ: 9,147: PFE should logically follow Monday's report of Viagra's New Rx's in its third week. This number should be huge and PFE should fly again. One growing caution: at this point the media frenzy is becoming a negative factor. The FDA will not stand for any misue of Rx drugs being promoted by the media. Any FDA action could result in a 5-10% PFE correction. That said; PFE is headed higher to 115+ and beyond. Long-term I have never been more bullish!! Evaluation of Peabody PForecast: Profit-taking continued until the big Friday jump. Thumbs down. Peabody PForecast Record (60 weeks): 37-23 (62%) _________________________________________________________ Peabody Short-Term PForecast (5/10/98): PFE: 111.13, DJ: 9,055: Analysts' estimates of the impact of Viagra on PFE's EPS are understated. When reality hits, PFE will jump 10%. Expect Viagra 4th week New Rxs of 250,000 and a possible jump due to the anticipated NEJM article on Thursday. I expect PFE to pass 115+. Peabody Portfolio (+98.1%) PFE @ 111.13 The Peabody Portfolio has doubled in less than two years. In the last three weeks, the Peabody Portfolio has added 600 PFE shares to the Porfolio. The mythical Peabody Portfolio consists of Mr. Peabody's 16 aggressive PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996 . A total of 200 shares (100 shares pre-split) were purchased at each recommendation. To date, the Portfolio has purchased 3,200 PFE shares at an average price of $54.55 (only 4.1% off the subsequent next PFE Valleys). ________________________________________ # PFE Shares Purchased: 3,200 Average Price of Purchases: $54.55 Total Costs: $174,563 Total Market Value: $355,600 Total Potential Profit: $181,038 Date # Purchase Purchased Shares Price 8/14/96 200 $36.38 10/25/96 200 $40.44 12/4/96 200 $41.69 12/12/96 200 $40.50 12/16/96 200 $40.44 12/31/96 200 $41.50 1/2/97 200 $40.94 1/28/97 200 $42.38 2/28/97 200 $45.69 3/24/97 200 $44.88 3/27/97 200 $42.81 3/31/97 200 $42.56 8/8/97 200 $55.13 4/16/98 200 $97.00 4/27/98 200 $113.00 5/7/98 200 $107.50 Total 3,200 $54.55 Suggested PFE Buying Levels The following suggested PFE buying level is based on The Peabody Model. The aggressive buying price level is used in adding shares to The Peabody Portfolio. However, depending upon market conditions an immediate purchase could be made at any time: Aggressive PFE buying levels: $103 to $107 Conservative PFE buying levels: $96 to $102 Future Actions That Will Effect PFE ED news in the media Throughout 1998 NEJM Viagra article May 14,1998 (75% probability) Viagra Rx and sales trends Every Monday, throughout 1998 AUA Meeting-presentation of Viagra data May 30-June 4,1998 FDA review of Zeldox June, 1998 European approval of Viagra September, 1998 Launch of Zeldox July, 1998 Peabody V-Files Analysts' estimates of Viagra 1998 sales average only $500 million. At the current specification rate, it is estimated that Viagra is selling at a rate of $80 million per month. Accordingly, a very conservative 1998 Viagra sales forecast is $720 million. _________________________ Peabody Split PFE has split three times in the last ten years ( 2/91, 6/95, and 6/97). The Wayback Machine indicates that PFE has announced a 2-1 split if PFE trade above 80 for 90 consecutive days. In the January, 1998 survey of 22 PFErs, only 43% felt that PFE will split in 1998. At the Annual Meeting, PFE stated they will consider requesting additional authorized shares from shareholders later this year. Bottom line, the next split will be 3-1 in the Fall, 1998 or March, 1999.