To: thomas alta who wrote (16518 ) 5/10/1998 10:24:00 PM From: Sigmund Respond to of 27968
Outside of factors impacting the overall market, it seems to me there are two fundamental factors which might impact the movement of any stock: 1. A change in the prospects for the company 2. A change in the perception of the prospects for the company. Since the Atrix deal fell through, the Myriad deal with the IRS was finalized and the small acquisition, there has I believe been no change in the prospects for the company. So that aspect is neutral for the last week or two. With respect to perceptions, a lot has happened. This whole business of releasing the financials has certainly changed peoples perceptions. Some have been positively impressed, others negatively. Overall, I don't see it as being particularly crucial one way or another, so I don't anticipate a major move in the stock although I do think the bias is down until the situation becomes clearer. The worse part to me was the projections. Having lost a lot of money in real estate limited partnerships back in the eighties, the idea of relying on a company's forecast of the future... six years is somewhat ludicrous. Of course the company needs a forecast to do their own internal planning and sharing this forecast with shareholders can be seen as being open. But who can forecast this type of thing? Knowing the number of shares would be helpful and knowing the composition of the much ballyhooed profit would be particularly useful. But even more convincing to me would be increasing evidence that they know how to run the large business they acquired. This is a business that presumably was not successful or it would not have been in the situation it was in. If they can turn it around, it will be great. If they can turn that business around, they can acquire other similar businesses even those not in distress and add value. But if they cannot run this type of business well, none of the rest will mean anything. A company that cannot keep a set of books does not give me faith in their ability to run a body shop. So I am waiting for more clarification before I jump into this one....tempting as it is.