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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard Habib who wrote (13325)	5/11/1998 1:27:00 AM
From: Marc Newman	Respond to of 213182

Just a quick post in my effort to help keep the noise on the thread down in this time of heavy excitement and interest-- Much good speculation going on here about this week's events. I appreciate it. I still think the iMac's biggest market is to the current installed base that rarely upgrades. Thus, I don't see much cannibalization of the G3s. My grad student friend was lusting after a G3 and is now planning on buying an iMac, but he likely wasn't going to get a new computer, due to price. It is the iMac's cost/feature set that is driving the purchase. Like many in the installed base, he's using a slow modem and lame monitor--the iMac lets him get an improvement as part of the package. Like many in the non-upgrading installed consumer base, he doesn't buy software in any real quantity, so the iMac bundle is very appreciated. We haven't mentioned the iMac bundle enough--it really helps balance the lack of floppy, slower modem, etc. I am REALLY looking forward to the ads that Chiat designs for the iMac. Rich, I don't think the AIO is the odd man out. It is already shipping, in time for this crucial education season. The iMac announcement does help explain why the AIO wasn't offered to the non-education market. Perhaps it never will be. I think the AIO will continue to be a hit in the education market in 1999, though perhaps with USB and with say a 300 mhz G3 or faster. Now, having said all this, I would hope that we can see a $999 233 mhz G3 desktop for Christmas. By then chip will have been out for a year and should be dirt cheap to produce. Ditto for the cases, motherboards, etc. It would be perfect for those that don't need a monitor, modem, etc. and to let Apple compete with the Wintel $999 argument. Meanwhile, the steadiest upgraders would be buying 400 mhz G3 or G4 at that point, so not much cannibalization again. Btw, a lot of messages could be sent privately, or added as a PS, but when someone attacks another's credibility, math skills, etc., then it really needs to be answered on this board. Marc PS--Jim, great informed speculation, as always. Rhet, great review of Amelio's book. Eric, thanks for the channel check. The only confirmations of Wall Street availability we've gotten are from J&R and some of the other catalog shops, in limited quantities/configurations. Edit--One more note. Mac the Knife was suggesting that its sources said Rhapsody was moving away from being a server OS due to fears about competing with NT. Hope not, because if my back of the napkin calculations are correct, a doubling of Apple's server sales could lead to perhaps .10 more a quarter. Maybe someone who knows more about this subject can comment, after tomorrow.