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Technology Stocks : Applied Magnetics Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ann Corrigan who wrote (11878)	5/11/1998 10:50:00 AM
From: Spots	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12298

Ann, I am not a very good person to ask about APM's long-term outlook. At one time I thought if they could weather the current cash-flow storm prospects were pretty good because there are very few independent suppliers and demand will continue to increase. In that environment, supply would be a real problem. So I thought. I also thought that the independent disk makers would be highly reluctant to enter into contracts with competitors as principal suppliers, e.g., WDC from IBM, so they would have to turn to APM and RDRT. Although I think there may well be a supply squeeze longer term, clearly the independent drive makers ARE willing to make serious commitments to their competitors as major suppliers. Though eventually I suspect the supply squeeze will occur, it may be so far out that APM's ability to last is very much questionable to my mind. IBM, on the other hand, will probably last <G>. There are other factors that may draw this out too far for APM also, such as fewer platters owing to very high densities setting back the rate of demand increase. Surely eventually we will reach new higheer demand levels, but later. I believe there is real, present risk to APM as a viable company. Others here (such as the much-maligned Stitch) have made more insightful analysis than I have. Regards, Spots