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Biotech / Medical : ArQule -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Larry Liebman who wrote (210)	5/11/1998 9:24:00 AM
From: fut_trade	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 399

Eric Gordon will be presenting at the Frost & Sullivan Annual Pharmaceutical Industry Conference this week. newsalert.com

To: Larry Liebman who wrote (210)	5/11/1998 11:01:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Respond to of 399

My "call" on ARQL wasn't particularly good. It has just happened to work out pricewise just like your trading has just happened to work out the way it has. I submit to you that how your various plays got to where they did had nothing to do with why you took the position in the first place. A bull market makes everyone look good and forgives exceedingly poor investment choices. Probably ENMD was the best example of this and is the strongest proof to date that the bull market is over. ENMD has nothing. They are a completely technologically bankrupt operation. Another testament to the heights of pseudo-science to which our society has climbed. ARQL didn't go down because the investment community perceives my reasons for selling are valid. There is absolutely no one who agrees with my assessment. However, there ia a paucity of buying interest that is subtly based on what I've said. The clock is ticking and the institutional clients of H&Q won't wait much longer. Whatever the time I don't like companies that represent themselves as a "win-win" play. There is no such thing and it amazes me that old pros with decades of experience can still buy into that sales line. You have to ask yourself what added value is this company delivering. What skill and hard work are they coordinating to achieve innovative solutions? If there really was that going on, wouldn't the pharmas just buy them? You don't buy what is risky and doesn't provide added value. You don't buy one pop of added value because the company finds one good synthetic when your competitor can take the synthetic and reverse engineer it into an effective equivalent variant. That's why the pharmas are willing to concede the 50%. 50% of not much expected is, not much. All of the names you mention are being propped up by the waning days of the bull market. None are justified in trading for the valuations they have. I don't have to explain why, you can do that for me. But if you make an argument based on relative valuation, you can't do it for either of us. That game ended last summer and fall. The new game is called bear market. At least 1/3 of NYSE listeds are in it. In the beginning phases of a bear market, all biotechs must be avoided. If the free market raises rates and the FED doesn't interfere, suddenly all those dedicated to the long term institutions will take a hard look at speculations and conclude only one thing: SELL. The view that ARQL is cheap at 15 won't sway the heard as they find their way to the tunnel. There is going to be a major swing back into hard assets for several years. I will let the market tell me after that period is over where to place new money. I have no idea where that might be now. I was tutored by an old pro who also knows H&Q inside out that the first responsibility of a money manager is to preserve capital. I haven't heard anyone say that in 15 years, but I always thought it was the best lesson he ever gave me.