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To: Beltropolis Boy who wrote (2469)5/11/1998 4:31:00 PM
From: trilobyte  Respond to of 3029
 
Thanks Chris,

I had found the % data you posted (from the edgard
link that you can access from Yahoo!) but didn't
know they had spelled out things as clearly during the
last conference call with respect to which companies
they did the most business with.

I must say that i have found the trading during the
last few days rather disconcerting as I expected some
strenght in INVX following the reasonably positive
comments made during the last conference call (that
management thought this would be the bottom of the
down cycle and that orders should pick up going forward).
So I wondered what may be putting a lid on the upside
and concluded that this probably had to do with the
IBM-WDC alliance and the negative impact this would
have longterm on RDRT and APM.

I must conclude, after reading your post, that INVX
may itself suffer from this alliance as RDRT may
suddenly have to cancel contracts. I am assuming that
IBM will not be turning to INVX for lead wires or
other head parts.

The vanishing trading in this issue would appear to
be very bearish signal to me.

Comments anyone?

Trilobyte



To: Beltropolis Boy who wrote (2469)5/12/1998 1:34:00 AM
From: Tom Simpson  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3029
 
>Answer: As expected, Seagate, Read-Rite, and Yamaha are the three
>largest customers, though not always in that order.

Its a pretty safe guess that Seagate tops the list these days. Apart from the facts that SEG whacked hell out of their inventory last quarter and high end product is again flowing through, INVX has the HIF/Cheetah program at relatively high asp's. Yamaha is probably next because RDRT got squeezed so heavily at WDC. From CC 2nd hand (I missed replay personally) report, IBM is currently supplying 50% of WDC MR heads, whether as HGAs or HSAs I don't know, and where wires may have come from I don't know. In any case, shed no tears for RDRT on INVX account, for down there in the second INVX customer tier is SAE/TDK which has been going gangbusters. Wouldn't be surprising to see the next period top tier be Seagate, TDK, Yamaha in that order. Its hard to say because head share shifts around so fast...but wherever it goes, wires have to follow (this year anyway).

More important on the negative side is simply the declining growth impetus from the 2 wire TFI to 4 wire MR transition. WDC is essentially the last to change and they are already approaching something like 50/50.

Best Regards.....Tom