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Biotech / Medical : ArQule -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. Voodoo who wrote (212)	5/12/1998 12:30:00 AM
From: ahhaha	Respond to of 399

Sliding means decisive downside with volume or persistent downside with volume and capitulation. Eroding means only disappointed ill-informed little guys are selling. Regardless of the selling characteristics there is price concession. Hands are not strong underneath, but they're strong enough to catch a falling star at 8. Well if the majors are in direct competition even though they farm out some action, it would seem that the probability of success is even less than was expected in January. The stock price erosion expressly represents this. So far it has been all a near miss. The speculative appeal of the company is predicated on many near misses and maybe one good find. If the possibility was 0 of such a find, what would the company be trading at? I don't believe it's 0. I owned the shares once so I at least believed they would hit something very good and I still totally believe that. My criticism was one of valuation as I asserted in early February. In fact, I believe in the company more than those true blue institutions that will they plead their dedication on the way to the tunnel. Thus, I don't believe rational drug design is a failure and the proof of its value will be established in the horrendous downside of this stock since the big boys always create or discover the bottom with their dumping. No money manager likes the biotechs for the simple reason that without exception they have been disasters. That rings true for deals like Amgen or Biogen even though you might have made a pile holding their stocks. These companies create questionable drugs that are subtly poisoning the populace. They are no better than cigarette companies. I understand that most couldn't care less who is being poisoned as long as their investment pulls in a few more cents. There are few who will come out and admit that. They fear retribution from those whose job is to do good to the world. The drugs generated by these companies do some good, but they also do plenty of bad. It isn't discovered until much later how bad and then it's all shoved under the rug. Occasionally, some of it becomes public and then the public blames the FDA. The FDA blames the Congress. The Congress blames the companies. And the companies respond by sending out for another spin. If any of them are doing constructive biotech, all of the above parties find a way to undermine it. How can a money manager make any sense of all that idiocy? Making cancer cells immunogenic in all people by creating a specific agent is not the way to proceed. This is magic bullet thinking. What is specific to an individual is their immune system and its specific genetic internal constraints. The challenge is to push an individual's immune system buttons in a generic way to provoke the system to generate its own immunogenetic response. You can use ordinary bullets, but you force the individual's system to aim the gun with precision. I never go short. That's not investing. There are two investments: cash and long. No one says you have to make money at a rate exceeding the return on cash. If you have to, you shouldn't be doing this. Correct. All those funds out there shouldn't be doing this, especially since the vast majority are under performing the return on cash. Not this year? Year's not over. There is also this little issue of preservation of capital, but only the wise few believe in that. I'm not predicting a big market correction, but that could surely happen. That's too easy and the bull is not easily broken. Many stocks have already started the process to a painfully evident bear market. It's like prophecy, you never understand it until it's upon you. Right now most of the major companies are forming major tops, but there is cyclicality of an unusual nature going on too. Individual companies are following their profitability cycles quite well, better than any time in the past. Pharmas profitability is slowing and their price charts to varying extents represent this well. The more likely occurrence for most stocks is the slow erosion.