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Biotech / Medical : North American Vaccine -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don W Stone who wrote (358)	5/11/1998 11:12:00 PM
From: Cacaito	Respond to of 507

Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal Inmuniztion of children with pertussis toxoid decreases spread of pertussis within the family. In essence, the authors Birger Trollfors, John Taranger et all, claim "that this is the first time a pertussis vaccine (or any other vaccine )is proven to have a herd immunity value, albeit limited to intra familiar spread, not for the exposure in the community (i.e. schools)". The vaccine is Certiva, study from western Sweden. A very good article indeed, with very strong data in my view. Indirect protection for parents was 60%. Indirect protection for non-vaccinated younger children (not going to school) was 43%. No protection was proven for older siblings (going to schools). Of course, maybe is the first rigorous case of proven herd immunity, but the strong oral polio herd effect is very well known epidemiologically. But this is anyway a very good study, quite difficult to get done.

To: Don W Stone who wrote (358)	5/11/1998 11:36:00 PM
From: Cacaito	Respond to of 507

Safety Experience with a Monocomponent Acellular Pertussis Vaccine: No Reported Hypotonic-Hyporesponsive Episodes in more than 72,000 infants. Presented by J. Taranger, B. Trollfors et all, At the Pediatric Academic Societies Annual Meeting New Orleans, LA May 4, 1998 Results: 1. Previous multicomponent vaccines (Regular Whole cell pertussis) incidence in Sweden was 1 in 3,000. This is cases requiring hospitalizations. 2. Certiva monocomponent vaccine: 0 cases after more than 300,000 doses in more than 100,000 children in Sweden and Denmark. 3. This was based on passive reporting and review of hospitalizations. My comments: I am very favorably impressed with the data. I was in New Orleans for the meeting ( I was presenting my fellowship paper and very honor to present in a meeting of this caliber). I went to the poster presentation and met Dr Taranger, he is very passionate with the subject, but a very strong scientific mind. I was sad that his paper was not in a platform session like other vaccines (Aviron's influenza and RSV, and Rotavirus from another company) cause I think it was very important. But it gave me the opportunity to met Dr Taranger one to one. Most important data was the fact that there was no pertussis vaccine program in Sweeden for 17 years due to their previous whole cell program failure. They thought they will wait only 5 years for a new vaccine. But Certiva effectiveness was proven in a practically virgin population except for the high endemic incidence of pertussis. Part of the decision to developed a monocomponent vaccine was due to the fact that babies protection received from mothers was more effective when antitoxoids antibodies were present. I think Sturza is not right in the scientific aspect of this vaccine. I think Sturza is not right calling prognosis of poor chances of FDA approval. Caveat: I am not a shareholder yet. Observer status only.

To: Don W Stone who wrote (358)	5/11/1998 11:49:00 PM
From: Cacaito	Respond to of 507

Financial aspect of the company is a different matter, but not bad as Sturza claims. It is a tough market indeed. But not a commodity business like Sturza claims. The vaccine market is highly profitable. The federal and states goverments funding insures a good return to companies, especially after the litigious 1980s and poor vaccine availability created by the whole cell pertussis and oral polio side effects. Sturza claims that the schedule in Sweden and Denmark is not good for USA. 3mo, 5mo and 12 mo. I think that the schedule could solve a problem vs the USA 2mo, 4mo, 6mo schedules of about four vaccines and more coming. Certiva schedule with or without IPV could become a strong factor, at least it will not be a vary limiting one. NVX has a strong partner with Abbott's Ross (the biggest pediatric marketing force in earth). With the big short position this could be as explosive as ORG (I do not like Org's product, neither the company). Sturza could loss a lot. Hopefully his followers do not follow on this one. Technically, there was some weakness for several weeks but accumulation is back (worden tc 2000 BOP)