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To: ratan lal who wrote (33195)	5/11/1998 3:00:00 PM
From: DavidG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Ratan, Really !!!!! Well then ok....wait....maybe we should just "Ask Michael Burke" first and get his opinion. Maybe you should run down to the glue factory before it is too late and advise him of the change in fundamentals.:-) Good luck Trading DavidG BTW, I actually will be going long aroung 30 something.<vbg>

To: ratan lal who wrote (33195)	5/11/1998 4:15:00 PM
From: Chas	Respond to of 53903

Yes that famous cycle, how many times has this been discussed. Semis see increased demand, then increase capital spending, build the fabs,increase capacity, become oversupply again, prices drop, stop expanding and wait for demand to exceed capacity again. This time the cycle has been a tad longer than many thought. I dont know about your recommendation on buying MU thats too long term for me. Good trading.

To: ratan lal who wrote (33195)	5/11/1998 4:20:00 PM
From: Chas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Ratan, Heres the article: techweb.com If you believe the dataquest article he is saying glut thru 99 and shortage in 2000. That is what I am hearing mostly now, earlier many were predicting glut in 98 and tightening in 99Q1. There is just too much capacity for 64M and everyone is using MU formula now which is shrink the heck out of the parts. With the new deep uv steppers which have been shipping this is possible much easier than before. So everyone is shrinking their parts. There are going to be a ton of capacity out there for 64M pc100, a ton. The good news is the PCs are shipping with more memory now, so by end of 99 when Rambus and all the new flavors start shipping it will cause quite a few issues most likely. The interesting part is the cost to really get into the 256M production. You may have read the article today about Hyundai deciding to continue working on the Scotland fab, and will build that fab for 256M, because they plan to use 12" or 300mm equipment, that is the most feasible for that large a part to make any money. That will be a definite increase in FAB cost to build a 300mm fab over the present 8" fabs for 64M and 128M. Thats the deep pockets, I read mentioning what suppliers will have to have to continue to be in this business. Its interesting how this will play out over the next 12-18 months. Good trading.