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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Tech Squared (TSQD)- Internet Commerce -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: M. Frank Greiffenstein who wrote (243)	5/11/1998 8:16:00 PM
From: Brian K Crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2752

''We're the leading player, and we manage more companies than anyone else in the world,'' says CEO Joel Ronning. ''We expect to build this into a $200 million-plus company. If we don't do that by 2000, we will have missed.'' Oooooh, I love it when my CEO's talk like that! Great find, Doc.... Brian

To: M. Frank Greiffenstein who wrote (243)	5/11/1998 9:37:00 PM
From: Brian K Crawford	Respond to of 2752

...some fun with numbers.... Based on the quote from the article DocStone found "we're on track to do 18 million this year": ============================================================ Estimated Digital River revenues per quarter for calendar 1998: Q1 $3,000,000 Q2 3,850,000 Q3 4,900,000 Q4 6,250,000 Total $18,000,000 (works out to a sequential quarterly growth rate of 27-28%) ============================================================== Taking the Q4 sales estimate and plugging it into the model I have been using in prior posts: First section is Digital River only: Est. Quarterly Data Dec 98 ============== Sales $6,250,000 ** Shares out (est) 20,869,565 Sales/Share $.2995 Sales/Share4 $1.20 (annualizing quarterly sales) Est value per Digital River Share @ X times annual Sales: X = 5 $6.00 X = 10 $12.00 X = 25 $30.00 Total Digital River Mkt Cap at Price-to-sales = X = 5 $125,217,390 X = 10 $250,434,780 X = 25 $626,086,950 (based on 20,869,565 shares outstanding) ============================================ Following section is TSQD.... Value of TSQD holdings of Digital River @ 23% of Digital River market cap: X = 5 $28,800,000 X = 10 $57,600,000 X = 25 $144,000,000 ============================================= Value Per TSQD Share @ 10,981,513 shares outstanding: X = 5 $2.62 X = 10 $5.25 X = 25 $13.11 ============================================== Notes: 1. * Backed into outstanding Digital River shares based on TSQD option of 4,800,000 shares representing 23% of Digital River outstanding stock. 2. Digital River quarterly sales estimate at March 98 of $3 million based on comment in Minneapolis Business Journal article indicating sales are running just under $1 million per month. ============================================================ Conclusion: I vote for an IPO at $20.00 per Digital River share in time for Thanksgiving, 1998. (that would indicate a value per TSQD share of $8.74) ============================================================= Comments? Brian