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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (19278)	5/11/1998 6:49:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

From Briefing: Industry leader, Applied Materials, due to report earnings after today's close... Street looking for gain of $0.37... Though consensus estimate has fallen by one cent over last 4 weeks, Briefing inclined to think AMAT will beat current estimate by one to two cents... Company has beaten street in each of its past five quarters... At yesterday's closing price of 37 1/4, AMAT trades at 25x estimated FY98 results of $1.49 (PEG=1.14) and 19.5x projected FY99 earnings of $1.91 (PEG=0.89)... Even if company beats estimate, near-term upside is limited by generally poor industry conditions.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (19278)	5/11/1998 7:07:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

just a little history. last time amat started their upcycle was november 22,1996 when the stock soared 7-8 points after numbers. the company told the street that next quarter they were comfortable with 800 million in sales and eps of 45 cents(all pre split ) the company saw orders rising from 750million in the first quarter from 683 million in the fourth quarter. THE KEY is if you remember the book to bill in october was 1.10 and that marked the first time over 1.00. the book to bill that year bottomed around february(1996) where it was around .90. it did not break 1.0 until october. also, the day amat started the upcycle in november it was raised by 7 firms-note brian-all from a neutral or accumulate to buys. my point is that is the history of the last upcycle. its intersting to know is amat did not move up substantial until the book to bill broke 1. also, this book to bill numbers are far worst today than we saw back then. also, the book to bill stayed under 1 for around 10 months. who said this stock moves 6-9 months before an upturn is really not true.( at least in last downcycle) amat made its big move a month after the book to bill broke 1 and after they said booking were increase from the previous quarter. the truth be told. i think everybody heard some analyst make that statement but as everybody knows they have no clue whats going on . these are the facts. my point is no way the market is patience. everybody wants instant gratification. since amat said their book to bill will not break 1 minimum until the fourth quarter, now looks like 1999, i see a lot of risks in these stocks. if the history repeats itself the time to own amat is when the book to bill breaks one if you look at the numbers in 1996 i think you'll come away with the feeling this is more severe downturn. amat looking for 36 cents (adjust for the split) and bookings around 750-850 million range. those are the facts. might not mean anything but people who are under the impreession amat ran six months before a positive book to bill are misinformed. amats big move came after the first month book to bill boke 1 and when orders increased and when management said this was the end. also, 1996 was marked by was weaker than expected demand from personal computers earlier in the year. during the christmas timebuyers doubled ordered on fear of running out of supply but it turned out to be a weak christmas. this led to bloated inventories and price slashing and computer makers were not ordering new parts. its was a classic supply problem and i didn't hear asia was getting destroyed. this is why i'm patience because 1996 was short downcycly of to much inventory this is more of a fundamental economic problem in semi's biggest ggrowth market-asia. in 1996 it was my opinion pretty cut in dry . today, i believe iit will take a while before asia gets on it feet.