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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (18328)	5/11/1998 6:41:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, You should be commended for standing your position, just be nimble. Good luck

To: William H Huebl who wrote (18328)	5/11/1998 6:52:00 PM
From: robnhood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill,, <<I still maintain that this week should be up strongly and possibly as much as 500 points IMHO.>> Everyone seems to be sitting on the fence. PPI, and CPI, due out this week, could give the rally a lot are calling for. It looks like it needs some kind of news to activate the players. russell

To: William H Huebl who wrote (18328)	5/11/1998 7:55:00 PM
From: Barbara Barry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, things look a little suspect to me although your vgy still looks positive.This last rally isn't very strong.bwdik? Regards, Barbara

To: William H Huebl who wrote (18328)	5/11/1998 9:07:00 PM
From: P.Prazeres	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, I'm hoping that the 500 point move up won't happen and I find it hard to believe it will. 1. DD has a $5 gap to fill (that'll probably start tomorrow) 2. GM has a 2-1/2 gap to fill. 3. As long as the long bond is over 6.00%, sell the strength will prevail. 4. The advance/decline on the NYSE has broken down...more damage today. 5. the Dow is sitting 5 points above its 20 day MA (which is flattening from its uptrend going back to January). In the past few weeks it closed below it, signifying the weakness. 6. The new lows are behaving quite nicely (one of the only positives I see). 7. But the new highs are anemic, at best...not a sign of strength. 8. Even early this morning, the down volume was right there with the up volume (maybe some distribution going on). 9. The 98 estimate on the dow stocks dropped again to $449.74....the lowest this year. (throughout the feb , march and april as the dow was going up , its earnings expectations were going down. it was justified by the lower 30 year bond, then at 5.8% or so. The dow can't fall back on the 5.8% yield for now...ie, probably some correction in the making). 10...and most importantly. I picked up some dow puts late this morning...so let's wait another week for your 500 points up , this week I'd rather see it down. Just a few thoughts Paulo PS, has anyone here taken to the oil service stocks. On weakness, UTI, ESV, HOFF, and KEG are pretty good values...

To: William H Huebl who wrote (18328)	5/11/1998 9:13:00 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, I believe the preponderance of the evidence still rests in favor of the bull camp as well, and believe the wall of worry that's being created with bonds, Microsoft, etc., will crumble away in the next rally. 30 yr. Bonds appear to be nearing the completion of the "flat" (3-3-5) correction that began in early January. I believe the end of the bond correction will be marked by the completion of the 5 waves of C that began on 4/3, as seen clearly on this chart :http://www.dbc.com/htx/dbc/squote.htx?SOURCE=htx%2Fdbc&TICKER=%24tyx&tables=chart_table Looks like the 5th wave of C began in early May, and the yield could reach the 6.125 to 6.2 area before reversing to continue the multi-year march lower. I believe equities traders will recognize this being the termination of the 4 month bond correction, and near term divergence will continue and should be viewed as bullish for both bonds and stocks. On an aside, I don't think the bearish case has any strength until the uptrend line on the Dow Indu. daily chart that connects the low of 4/1 and the closes of 4/28 & 29 and the lows of 5/8 is taken out to the downside. This would require a close below 8980. Regards, David