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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tiley who wrote (15950)	5/12/1998 12:10:00 AM
From: Clint E.	Respond to of 68182

Hi Manish. Looks like NAZ didn't even try to give us a head fake to 1890. I went to a meeting in the afternoon when NAZ was flat and came back before the close to see it in red. I said to myself that these days NAZ is like that TV show, "Bay Watch". You shouldn't take your eyes off of it if you want to catch every bounce....!! NAZ reminds me of last year, between the months of Feb. to April, after an explosive rise in Jan. In Feb. and March we struggled down to 1200(14% correction) with an increasing degree of volatility in late March. In April, although we had already hit the bottom at NAZ's 200dma(1200), the volatility sky rocketed. I remember that short-term patterns were good for only a day or two. We could close down today, slide down further the following morning, stabilize in the afternoon, and reverse to the upside the morning after...and on and on...It was a chaotic market. Very short-term oriented, touchy, and direction-less ....We hit that 1200 mark 4 times before taking off at the end of April. I expect the same thing here. We are working our way down to a lower low with a narrower trading range and with increasing degree of volatility for the rest of this month and into the 1st week of next month. I stick to my 1750-1770(~1772 was NAZ previous 52-wk high) as the low that we eventually hit. I actually expect a Summer rally to emerge soon. They need to hurry up and push us much higher before the next earnings season & Fed. Reserve meeting. I know what you want. It is the same thing that all of us short-term traders are fascinated with. We see the volatility and we want to take advantage of it. I know I was disappointed for not having shorted PSFT at 48(waiting for 50), or not shorting DELL today at 94, ITWO at 71.... We all want to pick the absolute top when we short and the absolute bottom of stocks when we long. But, the market is too volatile and unpredictable these days to be able to expect a great deal of accuracy with short-term trades. The best thing to do is to average up & down. As far as bank stocks, yes they were oversold. BIX & BKX even got down to their 50dmas but that doesn't mean anything as far as sustainable rally because the market is not settled yet to read too much into it. I didn't do anything today but my stocks held up well. Even TLAB went my way, down. However, that doesn't mean anything tomorrow. I am going to take profit when it comes my way, narrow my trading window, increase trading frequency, and don't make a big fuss about not having picked the top of any short or the bottom of any long. Later; Clint