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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (18349)	5/11/1998 9:02:00 PM
From: robnhood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

bobby,, these fades toward the end of the day seem to be becoming more frequent. This is something I don't believe we have seen for some time.. Something is changing IMHO.. russell

To: bobby beara who wrote (18349)	5/11/1998 9:58:00 PM
From: robnhood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

bobby, further to my last post about the fades.. Heres someone on Kitco comong to the same conclusion albeit differently.. <<With the caveat that I'm only an amateur at technical analysis, I thought folks here would be interested in some data regarding the DJIA. As some may remember ( or not, it was a while back I last posted on this ) , I like to use a non-linear time-series analysis method to look at the behavior of the DJIA. Looking at the DJIA over the past couple of years over time periods of 1 - 3 months, whenever there has been a dip or a rise, an indicator I follow called the H exponent has always been less than 0.5, which suggests that over that time period, trends ( either positive or negative ) tend to get reversed. However, over the past 90 trading days, H is greater than 0.5. This suggests that trends get re-enforced. This is quite unusual, especially on a downtrend, since in the past, all downtrends had H less than 0.5. In fact, it is the only time this has happened over the past 400 trading days. This suggests that the dynamics of the time-series ( which reflects the dynamics of the buyers and sellers ) has fundementally changed. One interpretation is that fewer folks are buying the dips, perhaps less short-covering is going on. It also suggests that the current downtrend off the high may continue. I guess we'll see. >>>