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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (18357)	5/12/1998 1:52:00 AM
From: HeyRainier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Ike, it's pretty hard to see the bond yields significantly moving lower than where they are right now based on the technical resistance at this point (on an intermediate term basis). Based on the intermediate term outlook, I'd venture the opinion that we've got a potential upside movement that is capped to about 6.4% on the bond. If the chart on the bond yield was instead on a stock, I would perhaps consider going long on the equity (taking into consideration the inverted nature of the yield and the price, and so forth), or short the bond. The markets in my opinion are behaving kind of funny lately, and the movement in the yields is not comforting either. Some leading technical indicators I developed are showing signs of upward momentum on the bond yield. Just some more things to consider. Regards, Rainier

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (18357)	5/12/1998 8:09:00 AM
From: Lee	Respond to of 50167

Hi Ike,..Re:<<apparently it seems that bond traders are smelling something which equities guys are overlooking. >> I don't know what bond traders are nervous about but I have noticed that the strong dollar underpins our rates. If you look at the weekly Tbond chart compared with the $index weekly, they look very similar. tfc-charts.w2d.com tfc-charts.w2d.com I also noticed several months ago that the mark and Tyx tracked fairly closely but I haven't plotted those on the same chart yet. Also, apparently there is both government and corporate supply coming to market this week which normally pressures bonds. economeister.com JMHO Regards, Lee

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (18357)	5/12/1998 3:16:00 PM
From: Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Good Afternoon Ike,..Re:<<or a very good PPI/CPI number, whichever happens first.>> PPI - Consensus estimates are for PPI to come in +0.1% and core = unch. according to Briefing.com A few notes from the May 1 NAPM and May 6 Beige Book and May 12 Atlanta Fed show that there isn't much pressure in the 'prices paid' component. May 1 NAPM - NAPM's Price Index indicates prices paid by manufacturers are still declining. Exports failed to grow in April while Imports grew at a faster rate than recorded in March. May 6 Beige Book - Information obtained by most Districts suggests that goods prices at most stages of production are nearly steady. While the prices of most goods are nearly steady, growing construction activity has resulted in some price increases for construction materials, especially lumber. May 12 Atlanta Fed - Both current price indexes turned negative again, and supplier delivery time fell somewhat. Indicators of future activity dropped in April. The current prices paid index also fell to minus 1.1 in April after climbing to 4.4 the previous month. The prices paid series has been low over the past three months after reaching its first-ever negative value in February. This series began January 1992. Just a preview of what we might be looking for. Regards, Lee