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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vitas who wrote (18377)	5/12/1998 8:14:00 PM
From: bearshark	Respond to of 94695

Hi Vitas: The 5-day ARMs is read this way. When the cumulative total of the last 5 days is 4 or lower that is a sell signal. When the same cumulative total reaches 6 or more it is a buy signal. Now for the caveat. The ARMs behaves very nicely in a balanced consolidation where the buying and selling forces are nearly equal. We had that from November 1997 to January 1998. When the equilibrium is gone, the ARMs does not work in the manner that I described. Currently, the bias is towards buying stocks. The last ARMs 5-day buy signal was on 1/9/98--from memory. The market has been so strong since then that the ARMs could not reach a buy signal. The last sell signal was a couple of weeks ago I believe. There actually was a decline of 200 some points after that signal. I posted a number of notes to Lisa in January on this thread that list the various buy and sell points the ARMs gave and the resulting up-moves and declines. By the way, if the daily ARMs is .7 or lower tomorrow, we will have a sell signal.