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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (41524)	5/12/1998 10:53:00 AM
From: MichaelW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Re: risking 50 to 70 pts. What are you talking about?

To: Lucretius who wrote (41524)	5/12/1998 11:18:00 AM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

L uc T, i'm very busy, but thought i'd respond to some information you'd posted earlier regarding the economy, and info contained in the economist. the economist, by the way has been predicting on and off a collapse since 1990. their most recent article, and your presumption, that the m1 and m2 money supply is growing at an unprecedented rate is more likely due to a flood of asian investors out of local currencies and into US dollars rather than any action on part of the feds. you also mentioned the increase in consumer debt. the growth of debt has actually been slowing since 1995 from 14.2% in 1995 to 4.7% growth last year. and new evidence shows that productivity gains in the US economy is actually much greater than originally thouht. the bureau of labor stats made an error in calculating productivity, since their correction, gains are being revised upward. inflation the first four months of this year is five times less than the first four months of last year. you also mentioned the japanese selling US bonds. but you forget to mention that the Chinese have compensated for those sales by buying major chunks of US bonds. there's also the US govt. surplus which must be considered. all positives.

To: Lucretius who wrote (41524)	5/12/1998 12:17:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

<<I know this mania will end badly>> KTel is/was a mania...........Dell's price is (obviously) based on fundamentals.........Keep trying to use the "m" word, though, many some naive investor will believe you..................... (You) better pray that Dell gives some hint of future bad news during the May 19 earnings announcement. Without some future warning/bad news (after announcing blow-out earnings), there will be very little basis for you to make any serious money from your PUT LEAPS, and you will be taking, most likely, a "bear" bath...Almost all PC vendors (and Intel) are predicting a higher growth 2half of year for all PC vendors.........IMO, if CPQ and all the bad news from Q1 could not seriously hurt (Dell's stock price), you bears have missed your best opportunity this year (for a serious meltdown)....... << I have outlined my fundimental reasons for this stock to come down previously on this thread. My information that I'm receiving has not changed.>> LT, most the time all you post (concerning Dell) is "this will all end badly", and present very little data to support your arguments... By contrast, you have stated that you are long Japan...that you see a recovery on the horizon.......In addition to my previous posts on the subject, here is another (of countless) articles which sees the Japanese market in its real condition.... Wall Street Journal, May, 11,1998: "International Strategy & Investment is particularly concerned about the weak state of the Japanese economy. Although Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index rallied in January and hit a 1998 high of 17264.34 on March 2, it has since fallen back. It closed at 15149 Friday, almost the same level as where it started 1998" In one post, you stated that you have been out of the U.S. market (long) for one month, in another post, two months.....In either case, if you bought the Japanese market after March 2, you have been a loser...(and maybe a major loser) with this investment.... Sure the XAU (the other index that you like to mention concerning your gold mining holdings) is up 13% since the start of the year, but that is since the START OF THE YEAR....from your comments, it is apparent that you have not enjoyed the totality of this gain (having bought in later)..........Most of us on this thread are ahead of the XAU 3x, 4x, 5x (or more) on our investments this year ....... <<It is the future that doesn't look so bright for DELL>> Your comment is absurd. Dell continues to grow at a multiple of the overall PC market, 3x + (You have presented no evidence if/when this will end).........independent sources see the overall PC market growing at least at 15-20 % for the next 2-3 years (you have presented no evidence if/when this will end)......Dell continues to (1) increase sales over the internet....(2) grow sales/earnings in all target market segments by 60, 100, 200% year-over-year...........(3) Take market share (along with other major players) from "clone" manufactures..........(4) Grow at fantastic rates despite perceived threats of (A) sub-1000 PC's (B) NC Computers (C) Aggressive price competition, the so-called "commoditization of PC's" (D) A weak Asian market (E) Dumping of cheap PC's in the channel by CPQ, IBM, and others (F) Fast growth rates by a competitor (HP).............Where is the data that indicates Dell's continued strength is these areas is going to end anytime soon? Also, Dell has proven that it can make its low-cost, high-value model work in international markets, with servers, workstations (enterprise systems)......Yadda yadda yadda......Where is the evidence that this is going to end in the forseeable future? I REPEAT: YOU CONTINUE TO PRESENT NO CREDIBLE EVIDENCE THAT ANY OF THIS IS GOING TO END IN THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE! Relative to its growth rate, Dell continues to be a buy, even at these levels..........It is useless for you to continue to quote Dell's PE (without mentioning/factoring in its past and future projected sales/earnings growth rates)....Using tradional valuation models (Dell's PE vs. SP average PE, etc.) with growth stocks is proven not to work (THERE IS PLENTY OF EVIDENCE FOR THIS)..........Using your valuation methods, an investor could/would have never bought Microsoft, Cisco, AOL, or many NASDAQ/technology stocks (at any point in their histories) from the time they went IPO until the present........ <<Feel free to hold at these bloated levels (although I think your risking 50 to 70 pts to the downside for about 10 to the upside?)>> Are you going to be posting this (again) when Dell hits 100, 110, 120, etc.? (since you've been doing this since the 60's)...Lucretius, can we PLEASE have some sort of timetable of when this "crash" is supposed to happen.......or do you even have an idea? It would lend credibility to your argument if you could let us know (roughly) when this going to happen..........instead of saying that "it will happen one day".......... OK, kiddo? JMHO