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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dwc who wrote (20597)	5/12/1998 2:56:00 PM
From: Jack Be Quick	Respond to of 32384

I agree, it's a good deal for Lilly.

To: dwc who wrote (20597)	5/12/1998 5:07:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

dwc, Robertson Stephens came out with a fairly extensive report on LGND today. They thought that it was a good deal for LGND since SRGN and LLY had spent $220 million on the technology. They think that a $50 million market for ONTAP was doable and they noted favorable data for ONTAP treatment of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.

To: dwc who wrote (20597)	5/12/1998 5:16:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Here's BancAmerica Robertson Stephen's take on the investment side: INVESTMENT IMPACT: Positive. Considering that Seragen spent over $200 million and Eli Lilly spent at least $20 million on this technology, Ligand's price of $75 million (over half of this price will be paid at a future time when Ligand's stock price could appreciate) appears cheap, in our opinion. With the acquisition of Seragen, Ligand acquired more than just Ontak as the company has a significant patent portfolio. To market its product Simulect, Novartis has obtained a license from Seragen, and we believe that the remainder of the patent portfolio will result in additional royalty-bearing deals and revenues to Ligand/Seragen. Overall, we believe that Ligand has made a strong step forward in broadening its cancer franchise and patent portfolio through this acquisition of Seragen which has strong financial terms for Ligand that have limited downside as approximately 50% of the deal value is contingent upon approval of Ontak.

To: dwc who wrote (20597)	5/12/1998 5:18:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Here's their take on upcoming events: UPCOMING EVENTS: Upcoming events for Ligand include: (1) Initiation of Phase II trial of Targretin in breast cancer expected in Q2:98; (2) Results of Targretin in Phase II/III to treat lung cancer and Phase I/II in combination with interferon to treat lung cancer expected in 2H:98; (3) File Topical Panretin to treat KS expected in Q2:98 with approval expected by early 1999; (4) File oral Panretin to treat KS expected in 1999; (5) Ontak in front of Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee on June 1-2, 1998; (6) Additional oral Panretin data to treat KS expected at ASCO; (7) Full presentation of the international and North American Phase III topical Panretin data at the International AIDS Conference in Geneva in late June/early July; (8) Filing of multiple INDs by Ligand and the company's partners.

To: dwc who wrote (20597)	5/12/1998 5:21:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Here's what they say about ONTAK: Ontak will be in front of the Oncologic Drug Advisory Committee on June 1-2, 1998. - Thus, if this meeting is positive as expected, we believe that Ontak could receive full approval from the FDA as early as October 1998 (the drug has been granted priority review) and contribute to Ligand's goal of profitability in 1999. - We believe that there are approximately 8,000 patients in the United States with CTCL resistant to other course of therapy- the target market for Ontak. - We estimate that $50 million in U.S. sales is doable for this product. - Thus, even if the penetration rate is low, we believe that Ontak will be accretive to Ligand's earnings in 1999. - Currently, we estimate that Ontak could sell approximately $30-40 million in the U.S. and another $10-20 million overseas. - Lilly will receive a double-digit royalty from Ligand for sales in the year 2000 and beyond. - We believe this is a low-double digit royalty. - Furthermore, we believe that there is significant potential for this compound beyond CTCL, specifically in the non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) market where the compound has demonstrated potential. - In a Phase I trial of 17 non-Hodgkin's lymphoma patients treated with Ontak, two patients demonstrated a partial response rate, and one patient had a complete response. - We estimate that the worldwide market for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma is in excess of $250 million. - We believe that if Ontak is approved for CTCL that Ligand could market the product for NHL with the publication of positive clinical results. - If Ontak does demonstrated positive results in NHL, we believe that this indication could drive sales to about $100 million.