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Gold/Mining/Energy : Tusk Energy (TKE) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: saif who wrote (441)	5/12/1998 2:11:00 PM
From: grayhairs	Respond to of 1207

Hi saif, Your English is just fine, saif. My response was only a very poor attempt at some humor this morning. I guess my attempt failed. I'm very sorry if perhaps you misinterpreted my response. Saif, I am fairly certain that I do have you "sized up" reasonably accurate. I see you as a very prudent businessman, and one with an extremely "sharp" pencil. You are one who is not afraid to take a "measured and defined risk", but one who tends to shy away from "unknown risks" or "pure gambles". How did I do?? Anyone else want their palm read? Or, you can call my physic hot line at ... RE: "...10% success chances in exploration wells..." Saif, a lot of people "throw out" the 10% exploration well success rate. BUT, NO ONE ON THIS THREAD HAS PROVIDED ANY REFERENCE STUDY TO SUPPORT SUCH A STATISTIC!! We don't know in what basin(s), or over what historical time period, or for wells of what depth, etc. that this often quoted statistic applies. Hence, is it even really meaningful for wells that we are investing in??? We all just throw it out because, like a bunch of lemmings, we've heard it before. It's easy to quote, it makes us sound like we know something, and it's even difficult for anyone to challenge because we never qualify the relevance of the statistic!! -- No one has yet convinced me that the success rate for recent (say Rig Release between Jan 1, 1993 and Jan 1, 1998) Alberta exploration wells, with a TD greater than 10,000 feet, is only ~10%. I do suspect that it in fact is higher for such wells. And, no one has offered any reason (except "shit happens"\"Big Picture Risk") as to why why such an exploration well, if cased to TD with multiple indicated hydrocarbon bearing zones on logs, etc., would not be expected to have an even higher success rate. THAT SUCH WELLS DO IN FACT HAVE A HIGHER SUCCESS RATE IS OF COURSE ONLY MY SPECULATION (not investment)! Later, grayhairs