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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (18425)	5/13/1998 12:59:00 AM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Jim, Whether it's program trading buys, individual or basket stock buying, or call buying/put selling, it's all really the same thing... somebody in the know going long the market. I think we sometimes get tangled up on how the market is rising or falling, but what I believe really matters is that it is making the move based upon the players taking their positions. If market internals or other indexes aren't confirming the move up, you have to ask yourself the question... do I want to wait for confirmation, and miss a good bit of the ride, or jump in now before confirmation comes. As an option player, it is very expensive to wait for confirmation (but sometimes safer). That's why I focus on what is driving the market, which is really fundamentals, but the first area you see the fundamental buying/selling show its influence is in the wave formation and patterns being made. Once the patterns have been made and activated by prices taking out their "in play" pivot points, technical momemtum will take prices to the targets. I've found the best confirming indicator is DMI, which will issue you extremely reliable confirmation signals of a move in the S&P/OEX well before A/D's or New hi's/lows, will. Divergences in DMI to the price will also get you out of the move near the top/bottom if you watch closely, and of course the targets of the patterns usually gives you a fantastic profit taking/position reversing point. I've always found nearly everything else to be marginally helpful in pinpointing when to pull the trigger. And when I err, it's usually because I missed a pattern, flubbed a wave count, or fell asleep at the wheel as DMI screams at me to exit/reverse my position. So even with these terriffic tools, success is only assured by diligence and vigilance. Caffeine & ammonia, anyone? Regards, David