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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (19343)	5/12/1998 10:07:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 70976

Now that is big. I could easily see the Microsoft win overshadowing AMAT's conference call to produce a big tech rally tomorrow.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (19343)	5/12/1998 10:30:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

conference call-negative if you do not get caught in the spin. capital spending will be down 10-15 % this year. this is higher than what amat said this year. the company is looking for eps around 20-23 cents for next quarter which is believe the mean 29 cents and down sequetially from the first two quarters. one aspect that was a surprise was u.s will be down next quarter with obviously asia. the company had recievables up 100million from last quarter and dso increased. the company has no visibility as they stated scraping orders together. the company says the uncertainty will not clear itself until at least 1999. what happened everybody said a pickup in the second half. also, the company expense was around the same compared to first quarter but will be down dramatically next quarter as 1300 less are with the company.the company book to bill was .87 and probably be around that for at least this year. the big negative i see is the company had really no cancelled orders or one that was not meaningful. this tells me in current conditions and the lower revenue i hope ttheir anticipating a cancelled order-over 50 million. also, the company future outlook of a turnaround has do with the economies remaining somewhat intacked. this is where the big risks i see because asia is going to get worse before it gets better which eventually will have severe effect on europe. at best, we could a bottom from my impression around second quarter of 1999 if the worlwide economy remains healthy. morgan said that this was one of the hardest to access of past downturns. no doubt estimates are coming down and was really nothing positive coming from the meeting. since, estimates are coming down and visibility is zero and the talk was about 1999 not 1998 about an upturn.as i stated on an eps this downturn will be worst than 1996. my rule of thumb is i stated before is when management states no visibilit its never good news coming. amat did a good spin of backdooring numbers so next quarter when they do 23 cents it will state they made the street, i reaaly see the stock doing nothing with lot of risks. i will surprised if you have downgrdes since lot of these guys just upgraded and they were dead wrong on their outlook. at 3x sales, with sequential eps down and visibility nowhere with lot of worldwide risks their lot of risks in the stock. for the bulls, put any spin on it you like it was not a pretty sight. it sounded to me that amat is buckling down the hatches and praying that the next upcycle is coming and can't wait to get out of 1998.