My Four Favorite "SEEK SUCKS" Arguments...
Have been rooting around on various threads for a while,
including the now completely unraveled Yahoo! SEEK
thread, I have compiled a list of my favorite Top 4
"SEEK SUCKS" arguments...
(1) "Yeah, but a search engine is a commodity. You
can get it anywhere." Aside from the fact that this
argument makes experts in the field of search engine
evaluation, like Danny Sullivan, go nuts, it just doesn't
comport with the facts. For example, SEEK's server product
sales have surged as a percentage of their overall revenues.
A strong search engine capability will remain IMPORTANT...
especially for business users, newbies who want to know
where to go, researchers, and college students. Plus,
it is important to note that at least one of the major
Search Engines has a CEO who is parroting these words "Search
engines are commodities." It's more than just his desire
to re-position his company as a portal, I assure you.
It's also because he knows that as a search engine goes,
his product isn't a full-bore winner.
(2): "Yeah, but SEEK management is just a bunch
of slow pokes who don't know thing one about marketing
and building on what they have." Read the bios of
SEEK top management... heck, just start with Beth
Haggerty... you don't even need to start at the Motro
level. And, remember, it has BEEN LESS THAN A YEAR
THAT THE BEGINNINGS OF THE NEW MANAGEMENT TEAM HAVE
BEEN IN PLACE. Less than one year. And what has happened
in this year? Deals with NBC Interactive, Microsoft,
Deutsche Telekom, AT&T... the purchase of WBS at what
can only be described as a garage-sale price... a
VERY SUCCESSFUL SPO which got the Street engaged
with the realities and potential of SEEK (and was
intelligently used as a platform for building buzz--
IPO as pursuit of public relations by other means)...
growth in page views and revenues... and two quarters
of easily beating Street numbers--even whisper numbers...
and a laundry list of other accomplishments--site
redesign and re-orientation toward "channels"...
securing a patent on distributed search technology...
the spin-off of a business intelligence company called
NewsReal which subsequently did a deal with CNNfn...
And all of this from a company with around 220 employees...
compartively small when measured against XCIT, much
less Yahoo! And, I don't think this has been easy,
either. When CEO (sic) Robin Johnson left SEEK, it
was rumored to be the product of a debate between
he and Steve Kirsch about the future of the company:
Johnson wanted to become a "media company" said one
of the articles at the time, Kirsch was against that.
Well, if that report was true... look at the about-face
that's happened.
(3) "Yeah, but ANY COMPANY could just come along
and outdo a SEEK on virtually any level." Thus,
I suppose, Time Warner's Pathfinder comes to mind...
now WHAT a resounding success THAT puppy was! The path
is littered with abortive entries into the game... from
AT&T and others. It is surpassingly simplistic to say that any company,
even A BIG, SMART COMPANY, can just come along and be the
next killer megasite or portal. Having talked to a lot
of big companies about e-commerce and Web marketing in
these past few months (and I say that not because that
makes me extra-cool or wise) I have been slack-jawed shocked
at how little THEY GET what's happening. Concepts such
as using the Web for value-chain management or to build
real-time customer knowledgebases or what constitutes
effective banner and beyond-the-banner advertising or how online
advertising/web presence is now influencing off-line
purhases... this stuff is still just beginning to
be grasped by LOTS of MAJOR PLAYERS. Big brands and media companies (with all
that rich content but not a lot of clues about building
community or making that content work in context) would
be well-advised to partner with some existing megasites.
(4): "Yeah, but when MSFT's Start gets out there,
everybody's gonna lose and some are going to simply
wither." If this were a simple zero-sum "audience
stealing" game, I might agree. But, the Web audience
is expanding... and they aren't just settling on
ONE provider. (There is scant evidence yet... but
it would not surprise me if there is great cross-over
between site visitors to XCIT and YHOO, for example.)
The larger point, though, is Start will be like most
major MSFT undertakings a NON-STARTER or will suffer
from IGNITION FAILURE (I'm writing headlines already),
i.e, it will be very late... not late Summer, either.
In the meantime, personally, as a SEEK shareholder,
I like the fact that MSFT has thrown this down. Because
it will make partners of those who might have just
stayed solo were it NOT for the threat of yet another
MSFT venture. Further, the game with the D of J isn't
over yet... it's just the third inning, IMHO.
Of course, I write all of this from the perspective
of a SEEK long-holder. And though I might want to claim
complete objectivity... the fact is... if I weren't
invested... I'd have not bothered to read up about
this stock and its sector as much as I have over these
past seven months.
Best Regards,
c m |
