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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andrew H who wrote (20636)	5/13/1998 3:38:00 AM
From: Torben Noerup Nielsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Andrew, >Only problem is that the figures are more like 1500 new case/year >than 16K. So the figures need to be radically reworked. Also >remember that the SRGN drug seems to be primarily for advanced cases >and that 37% of those will not tolerate the drug. Market becomes >much, much smaller. While the 1,500 new cases per year may be true, you also have to look at how long the disease takes to progress to terminal. It appears that it can go for quite some time and that would increase the pool of patients to be treated. Moreover, if the drug happens to delay the inevitable, it also increases the size of the pool. All such grisly thoughts aside, there has to be something we are not aware of. Ligand has a good management team and they are not doing this on a lark. They no doubt evaluated this one carefully. And if it does help them to bring in $0.89 per share next year, watch out above. Cheers, Torben