5/1/98 America's Network article on ADSL
With a variety of flavors and even a `lite' offering, high-speed access is ready to be served.
americasnetwork.com
americasnetwork.com
Annie Lindstrom
The advocates have missed their mark. At Supercomm'97, those who
predicted that a veritable, all-you-can-eat bandwidth feast would be well
underway by the end of last year ended up off-target. For the most part, the
only feeding frenzy at the asymmetrical digital subscriber line (ADSL) table has
involved venture capitalists hungry to back a winning vendor...
STORY CONTINUES
FEAST YOUR EYES ON THE ADSL BUFFET:
3Com Corp.
ADC Telecommunications Inc.
Advanced Fibre Communications
Ascend Communications Inc.
AG Communication Systems
Alcatel
Aware Inc.
Cayman Systems
Cisco Systems/NetSpeed Inc.
DiamondLane Communications
DSC Communications Inc.
Ericsson
Fujitsu Network Communications Inc.
Lucent Technologies
NEC America Inc.
Nortel
Orckit Communications
PairGain Technologies
Paradyne
Pulsecom
Siemens Telecom Networks
Telmax Communications Corp.
Westell Technologies Inc.
STORY CONTINUES
... North American carriers did launch some
appetizer-sized trials and commercial deployments in the
last year. Yet, it's less than a month from Supercomm'98
in Atlanta, and no more than 10,000 to 15,000 ADSL
lines are installed across the continent, according to
TeleChoice Inc. (Verona, N.J.). In the high-speed
access race, the telcos are running way behind the cable
TV (CATV) companies, as more than 165,000 paying
customers now use cable modems, adds Michael Harris,
president of Kinetic Strategies Inc. (Phoenix).
Where's the beef?
But hold on. ADSL really started to cook in April after stunning
announcements were made by GTE Network Services (Irving, Texas) and
America Online Inc. (AOL; Dulles, Va.). In particular, GTE unveiled plans to
serve up ADSL-based access in what will ultimately amount to a staggering
300 central offices (COs) in 16 states over the next two years. AOL revealed
its intention to conduct xDSL field trials in various markets in conjunction with
Bell Atlantic and GTE.
The two announcements follow Denver-based US West's proclamation in
January that it would make its splitterless MegaBit ADSL service available in
40 cities by June. However, at press time, US West, which is deploying
NetSpeed Inc.'s SpeedRunner ADSL modems and LoopRunner advanced
digital subscriber loop access multiplexers (ADSLAMs), had not yet begun
offering commercial service in any city other than Phoenix, and it appeared that
the regional Bell operating company (RBOC) would not reach its lofty goal of
offering ADSL in 226 wire centers serving 5.5 million customers by June.
According to a US West representative, the RBOC was expected to launch in
"several of the target markets" in May. The regional Bell operating company
(RBOC) "is working diligently to enable our [COs] to make sure we can serve
as many customers as possible before we begin to offer service."
Nevertheless, AOL, GTE and US West's announcements have no doubt
saved vendors who had promised 1998 as a big year for ADSL from going to
Supercomm '98 with egg on their faces. Here are the details.
Soup's up at GTE
GTE selected the Speedport xDSL system manufactured by Fujitsu Network
Communications Inc. (Richardson, Texas) and its partner Orckit
Communications Ltd. (Folsom, Calif.).
GTE's announcement is quite significant. However, GTE will face significant
obstacles in delivering five xDSL service packages to customers. The first
obstacle is cost: it now appears that last year's projections of $50 per month
for 7 Mbps service won't fly in the real world. However, Jeff Bolton, GTE
senior group product manager for advanced switch services, counters that
customers will get more bandwidth for their buck than what is currently
available to integrated services digital network (ISDN) subscribers.
GTE plans to charge a one-time $60 fee to cover installation of CO equipment
as well as the splitter (splitterless ADSL will be available in about 12 to 18
months, according to Bolton). The carrier will install the Speedport modem and
make any inside wiring modifications for an additional $80. Customers can
purchase a modem for $300 or lease one for $12 per month.
GTE plans to offer five service packages at the following upstream/downstream
speeds and full prices/multi-term, volume discounted prices:
64 x 256 kbps at $25/(no discount price available);
384 x 384 kbps at $60/$45;
768 x 768 kbps at $80/$59;
768 kbps x 1.5 Mbps for single users at $120/$75; and
768 kbps x 1.5 Mbps for multiple users $250/186
Customers using the service to access the Internet directly, rather than through
their corporate local area networks (LANs), will pay an additional Internet
service provider (ISP) charge. At press time, GTE was negotiating ISP charges
with its Internet unit, GTE Internetworking (Cambridge, Mass.). Bolton
speculates that an ISP connection for 256 kbps service would cost about $25
per month. GTE plans to offer connections to additional ISPs, but what they
will charge is anybody's guess.
The fact that the service will not be offered ubiquitously and that installation will
be labor-intensive are additional hurdles. GTE initially will pre-qualify
customers, and roll a truck to their businesses or residences for each
installation, says John Appel, president of GTE Network Services. (Appel
declined to discuss the amount of time it would take for GTE to earn a return
on its investment for each customer.)
In pre-qualification, GTE will verify that a customer is not served by a digital
loop carrier (DLC), as DLC-based service will not be supported until early
1999, according to Bolton. Pre-qualification also determines whether a
customer's computer has an Ethernet card and if any interfering services are
present in the serving cable. Customers will be required to install their own
high-speed network interface (NIC) cards and Internet browser software.
GTE plans to deliver ADSL within seven days of order placement, according
to Bolton. Business-oriented trial customers will get first-seating at the ADSL
table, with new customers and consumer markets to follow.
Food for the masses
AOL's decision to test xDSL is another sign that the world is working up an
appetite for access. Initial trials are planned for Birmingham, Ala.; Phoenix; the
San Francisco Bay Area; suburban Washington, D.C.; and Redmond, Wash.
When those trials will begin, AOL will not say; however, chairman and chief
executive Steve Case got 11 million subscribers' mouths watering by talking up
xDSL in his April on-line letter. "[xDSL] is just one of several high-speed
technology options we are working on for our members," Case says.
If even a quarter of AOL's members take Case's words to heart, that could be
a real shot in the arm for xDSL. Nevertheless, it may take awhile for xDSL to
be added to AOL's regular menu. The ISP has been trialing cable modems
with several thousand members for about a year, but has yet to offer
commercial service, according to a company spokeswoman.
Food for thought
When preparing a feast, chefs make many choices before their creations can be
consumed. In January, ADSL chef wannabes in the telecommunications and
computer industries took a significant step toward unifying their efforts to make
ADSL a mass-market marvel by creating the Universal ADSL Working Group
(UAWG).
Like the National ISDN 1 effort in 1992, the UAWG's goal is to end ADSL's
legacy as a service plagued by a war over two "standards" -carrierless
amplitude and phase modulation (CAP) and discrete multitone (DMT)-in
addition to complex deployment issues. The group, which consists of Compaq
Computer Corp., (Houston) Intel Corp. (Santa Clara, Calif.)and Microsoft
Corp. (Redmond, Wash.) as well as the major telecom carriers and ADSL
vendors, aims to develop a universal, splitterless, medium-speed, open,
interoperable standard sanctioned by the International Telecommunication
Union (ITU; Geneva) by third-quarter 1998. The standard, also known as
G.lite, will let PC vendors integrate ADSL into their computers, simplify
installation and ultimately make ADSL plug-and-play.
In February, the ITU endorsed DMT as the modulation scheme for G.lite. The
UAWG is working to flush out the technical issues hampering deployment,
according to Kevin Kahn, UAWG co-chair and director of communications
architecture for Intel. "Our member carriers are sampling a number of homes to
get a random sample of what the inside wiring is like in their customers'
residences," Kahn says. "We are also doing comparable work to see what
loops look like."
The group wants to develop a "tight" standard that will leave little room for
vendor interpretation. "There is a temptation in the standards-making process
to solve problems by creating options. That gets you a piece of paper, but it
does not get you a working field standard," Kahn explains.
The UAWG hopes to have a reasonable number of Universal ADSL market
trials underway by year's end and ramp up commercial service by mid-1999,
Kahn says. The group also wants to host an event later this year that would let
vendors plug in their prototypes to prove interoperability.
Ironically, the UAWG announced its formation on the same day that Paradyne
(Largo, Fla.) unveiled a new type of DSL called multiple virtual line (MVL),
which the vendor claims solves many of the installation issues that the UAWG
hopes to untangle. Early interest in MVL proves that "the standards war isn't
over yet," says Paula Reinman, an analyst for TeleChoice.
"Originally, when I heard them talk about MVL, I thought `Oh, groan-here's
another standard,' but you know, that information was the most frequently hit
information on our Web site when the announcement was made at ComNet,"
Reinman says. "What that says to me is that people are more interested in
solving their installation problems than they are in saying a solution has to be
standards-compliant."
Expect to see a "reasonable" implementation of splitterless ADSL between
Supercomms '98 and '99, Reinman adds. "Right now, it's hard to know
whether it will be G.lite, MVL or something else that gets introduced in the next
three months."
Just desserts
For a mass ADSL market to develop, carriers must package the service and
"dress it up with applications" for all sorts of businesses, says Reinman.
"Carriers will have to look at what people are spending money on now and
show them how this very fast service can help them do it better."
At this month's Networld+Interop '98 in Las Vegas, the ADSL Forum is
sponsoring the ADSL Hot Spot at Booth #2491. More than 20 equipment
vendors will demonstrate interoperability, as well as applications such as video
streaming, video conferencing, Internet access, real estate marketing and
distance learning.
Another important issue is provisioning. "Even after a year of trials, I don't
think most entities really are ready for a mass market," Reinman says. "If 100
people called up to order ADSL today, most carriers would not be ready to
manage that."
Marketing to date has been disappointing. GTE kicked around the idea of
naming its commercial offering, but ultimately decided to go with DSL
Solutions. "DSL is a logical name, because we see it in the press at many levels
now and people are starting to recognize it," Bolton says. "We [evaluated] a
number of names and ultimately found that they had the potential to add more
confusion than clarification."
Filling up fast
Despite the hurdles, interest in ADSL is rising like a souffl‚ in a hot oven. As
we will see at Supercomm '98, carriers have a multitude of equipment to
choose from, and recent announcements attest to the fact that serious
deployment has begun. If GTE, US West and Bell Atlantic (which is expected
to begin wide scale deployment in the third quarter) actually meet their 1998
deployment goals, there could be as many as 150,000 ADSL lines installed for
paying customers by year's end, says Beth Gage, analyst for TeleChoice. The
research firm predicts 300,000 to 500,000 ADSL lines installed by the end of
1999; that number shoots up to 900,000 by the end of the century and to
reach 1.2 million lines by 2001.
"The numbers won't start to take off until splitterless equipment hits the market,
and that's a good couple of years away," Gage says.
The growth doesn't stop there. Jupiter Communications (New York) predicts
that 3.4 million ADSL modems will be deployed by 2002. IGI Consulting
(Boston) estimates that by 2005, 8 million homes will be called to an ADSL
supper.
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