Must-read 5/98 tele.com. Packet-switched infrastructure switch [ASND references. Info on Cisco "New World Order" program to be unveiled at Supercomm] teledotcom.com
Who Knows? Everyone knows that today's circuit-switched public network will give way to a packet-switched infrastructure. Right now, that's about the only thing that everyone knows.
By Dawn Bushaus Dawn Bushaus is Internet editor for tele.com. She can be reached over the Internet at dbushaus@mcgraw-hill.com.
These are exciting, exhilarating, exceptional, and excruciating times for anyone in the public network business. The first three exes--the good ones--stem from the mind-blowing opportunity that providers now have to create the framework for what will be the next century's public network architecture. That last ex--the bad one--stems from that very same opportunity.
The anxiety that's now building among public network providers isn't being caused so much by fear of the future as fear of the unknown. Companies like AT&T and GTE Corp. have been getting ready to make the transition from a circuit-switched to a packet-switched network architecture for a couple of years now. The rise of the Internet pretty much
ensured that the convergence of voice, data, and video onto one network--the Internext--will become reality. In fact, it's hard to find a provider that isn't developing strategies and technologies for the Internext (see "This Revolution Will Be Televised," April 1998).
But all that activity may be the biggest cause for concern right now. The reason: The longer individual providers and groups try to define the future on their own, the harder it will be to bring all those definitions together into a single, interoperable public network. Some early trouble signs already are popping up:
* A fundamental disagreement on how to build intelligence into the network is polarizing Internext developers into diametrically opposed camps (see "Bellheads vs. 'Netheads"). Most established telecom providers want to drive intelligence deep into the network; most advocates of IP-centric architectures--including many (but not all) of the new breed of native IP backbone developers--favor big, dumb backbones, with intelligence distributed out to end devices. [Sounds like Gary's vision] That division extends beyond the telecom world into application development, where champions of the network computer model like Sun Microsystems Inc. (Mountain View, Calif.) and Oracle Corp. (Redwood Shores, Calif.) are lined up squarely against Microsoft Corp. (Redmond, Wash.) and its PC-centric legions.
* Equipment makers also are forming splinter groups to determine the public network's future. Not surprisingly, the main battle lines are forming between mainstay suppliers of public network equipment and upstart networking vendors that want to extend their reach from the enterprise business into the public network arena. But even within the two main vendor camps, there are major differences in technology and approach.
The lack of a cohesive vision could spell trouble for the industry in the long run, industry watchers warn. "There is the potential for a series of disparate networks that don't interoperate," says Daniel Taylor, senior analyst at Aberdeen Group Inc. (Boston), a market researcher. If service providers choose to implement different network topologies, they must find a way to make them interwork, he adds.
While that's not an impossible feat at this early stage in the Internext development, it's something that will get more and more difficult as things move along.
Not just talk
The voice over IP frenzy has pushed the packet-switched public network agenda forward faster than most providers could have expected. But it's not the near-term promise of cheap voice service that has venture capitalists competing to dole out hordes of money to startups with nothing more to show for themselves than a fancy PowerPoint presentation. And it isn't cheap voice that has the world's incumbent public network carriers sweating bullets. It's the long-term promise of a more flexible, economical public network that can carry any kind of IP traffic thrown its way.
Those kinds of networks are now being installed by new public network service providers like ICG Communications Inc. (Englewood, Colo.), IXC Communications (Austin, Texas), Level 3 Communications Inc. (Omaha, Neb.), Qwest Communications International Inc. (Denver), USA Global Link Inc. (Fairfield, Iowa), and Williams Communications Groups (Tulsa, Okla.). [Nice list of ASND customers] The new carriers aren't saddled with legacy public network gear, an advantage that established carriers are well aware of.
"IP is to communications what the PC was to computing--it's that fundamental a shift," says Dan Schulman, president of AT&T WorldNet Services (Bridgewater, N.J.). It's a shift that the telecom establishment can't ignore. "AT&T needs to lead the way," Schulman adds. "Sitting back is not an option. You're going to see us be very aggressive."
That aggressiveness already is in evidence. AT&T's research and development arm, AT&T Labs, has started evangelizing its vision for the intelligent network of the future. In that vision, providers will implement a new kind of middleware at the edge of the network to act as a gateway between end-user devices or applications and the network's access and transport layers. AT&T has developed a prototype of its middleware architecture--code-named GeoPlex--which it is now talking up at industry trade shows and within service provider forums. The company presented its GeoPlex vision to the academic and research community at a conference on the Internet 2 project last month.
AT&T's smart network blueprint is a neat evolutionary fit for today's public circuit-switched network. But even within AT&T itself, debate has been raging over whether that plan is best for the public network yet to come. Last summer, then-AT&T scientist David Isenberg created a stir when he authored "The Rise of the Stupid Network," a paper that was published on an internal AT&T Web site. In that paper, Isenberg argued that carriers would be wise to invest in very fast but dumb networks and leave intelligence up to the end points, under the user's control--in other words, the kind of network that is the exact opposite of what AT&T is now advancing with its GeoPlex middleware.
"The nice thing about the Internet is that it isn't controlled by telcos," says Isenberg, who left AT&T in January to start his own consultancy, Isen.com (Westfield, N.J.). "We've never had anything grow as fast, be as accepted or useful, or allow for as much innovation as the Internet has," Isenberg says. "If you start putting too much complicated stuff in the network, then it's possible to end up destroying exactly what makes it so great."
Some next-generation service providers share Isenberg's view that the network should be as uncomplicated as possible. "Incumbent carriers are facing two terrifying events: the liberalization of the telecommunications market, which is leading to cost-based services, and a revolution in technology," says C. Holland Taylor, chief executive officer at USA Global Link, a company that got its start in the international callback business and is now building out a $1.2 billion global IP telephony network using equipment from 3Com Corp. (Santa Clara, Calif.). "Carriers are in severe danger, and they want to add intelligence to protect their control over services." A fast network run by smart applications and smart end-user devices is the better way, Taylor asserts. "We'll have pipes capable of carrying anything," he says. "They'll be colorless until they get color from what end-users put in them."
Central Intelligence
The fast and dumb network model is exactly the opposite of the computing paradigm championed by proponents of the network computing model. AT&T's vision embraces that model and calls for industry cooperation to implement middleware that would bridge the public switched network and the Internet, allowing service providers to create services quickly and deliver them over multiple backbones. "Right now, we're dealing in a two-layer environment--there are applications and transport, but there is nothing in between," says George Vanecek, chief scientist for Internet platforms at AT&T Labs. "That means we have to reinvent the wheel every time we want to deliver a new service. We can't scale services to global proportions that way."
AT&T began working on its GeoPlex architecture three years ago, when the company realized that IP was going to be the future of telecommunications, Vanecek says. Rather than rely on vendors to tell the company what it was going to need, AT&T opted to figure things out for itself. The result is a middleware architecture that can scale to support hundreds of millions of customers, Vanecek says.
GeoPlex can handle functions such as user registration, access control, authentication, security (encryption and digital certificate management), protocol mediation, and usage recording for billing, customer care, and network management purposes. Applications like directory services, e-mail, IP telephony, and unified messaging are integrated into the middleware, but other third-party applications, such as global directory services based on the lightweight directory access protocol (LDAP), can work with the platform, Vanecek says.
Because the middleware is capable of managing and manipulating protocols, it doesn't matter what kind of device a subscriber uses, nor does it matter what kind of transport protocols a service provider chooses to implement in the core of the network. "Underneath, the service provider can be running Sonet [Synchronous Optical Network] or ATM [asynchronous transfer mode]," Vanecek says. "It doesn't matter."
Contrary to what critics say, AT&T's proposed architecture would make the public network more open, Vanecek insists. "It's paramount that we open the telephone infrastructure in the same way that the Internet is open," he says. Today, there isn't a layer in the public switched network that allows software developers to tap into a switch through open application program interfaces (APIs), but middleware could make that possible.
Besides articulating its vision at trade shows, AT&T is trying to get other large service providers to buy into its idea by working with the Multimedia Services Affiliate Forum (MSAF), a group of global service providers and vendors working to ensure that services interoperate across multiple service provider backbones. Some of the world's biggest telecom companies are MSAF members, including AT&T, BT, Deutsche Telekom AG, and Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corp.
Middle March
Some central-office switch vendors now think that the CO switch, which sits at the edge of the network acting as an on-ramp, may be the logical platform for AT&T's middleware concept. "We can envision a future where the central office is a platform acting as a gateway for applications riding on top of it," says Mark Wilson, director of strategic planning at Ericsson Inc. (Research Triangle Park, N.C.). "That's one plausible scenario."
A second option--which is more likely, at least in the near term--is for Class 5 voice switches to become big voice servers in a central office or point of presence (POP) dominated by data networking equipment including multiservice access concentrators, packet and cell switches, routers, and voice, fax, and video gateways.
That's a scenario that Ericsson and many of its competitors are taking very seriously, and it's a vision that's already on its way to becoming reality as large service providers begin to deploy multiple gateways in their POPs that will let them deliver services such as click-through applications for Web-based call centers and fax and voice over IP (VoIP)."The central office of the future is going to have to provide standard voice connectivity for the public switched network, which means Class 5 switch functionality, but it also must handle fax and data," says Chris Brickler, director of enhanced IP services at GTE Corp. "It must also scale and provide a high level of security like today's central-office switches."
GTE already is starting to make changes in the CO. The company announced in March that it is deploying gateways from NetCentric Corp. (Cambridge, Mass.) to deliver a fax over IP service and a platform from PulsePoint Communications (Carpinteria, Calif.) to deliver unified messaging. GTE also plans within the next month or so to begin testing a VoIP application called CyberID, which will let computer users know who is trying to call them while they're online. At press time, the company hadn't announced which supplier it will work with for the CyberID application.
The state of transition
Other carriers also are beginning the transition. MCI Communications Corp. is deploying gateways developed by NetSpeak Corp. (Boca Raton, Fla.) to deliver a service that lets end-users click on a button on a Web site to be linked to a customer service representative. US West !nterprise Networking Services (Denver) is testing a fax over IP service and is working on development of a directory-enabled network. And AT&T, Deutsche Telekom, Telecom Finland Ltd. (Helsinki), Telenor A/S (Oslo, Norway), and Telia AB (Stockholm, Sweden) all are either already offering VoIP or are gearing up for trials set to begin this summer.
Three groups of vendors are trying to sell transition gear to bridge today's public switched network and the Internet. The first group is the big central-office switch vendors, including Alcatel N.V., Ericsson, Lucent Technologies Inc., Northern Telecom Inc., and Siemens Telecom Networks (Boca Raton, Fla.). The second big group includes data networking equipment vendors like Ascend Communications Inc. (Alameda, Calif.), Bay Networks Inc. (Santa Clara, Calif.), Cisco Systems Inc. (San Jose, Calif.), and 3Com. Then there are the developers of VoIP gateways, companies like ACT Networks Inc. (Camarillo, Calif.), Clarent Corp. (Redwood City, Calif.), Hypercom Inc. (Phoenix), Mockingbird Networks (Cupertino, Calif.), NetSpeak, Vienna Systems Corp. (Kanata, Ontario), and VocalTec Communications Ltd. (Herzliya, Israel).
The big CO switch vendors have a lot of experience in selling to telephone companies, and they've proven they can build platforms that are fault-tolerant. On the downside, though, they don't have experience with IP. The router vendor crowd also has some experience selling to service providers but, perhaps more importantly, has a lot of experience with IP. A negative for the router vendors is that they know little about voice services, and their equipment, while highly available, isn't as reliable as a CO switch. The smaller gateway providers probably face the biggest challenge in that they don't have full networking product lines to pitch. But they do have one very important thing going for them: They have equipment in the field. Many of the early Internet telephony service providers are using gateways from companies like Clarent, Vienna Systems, and VocalTec to offer VoIP and voice over the 'Net (VON) services.
As these groups jockey for market position, partnerships and acquisitions are likely. In fact, they're already starting to happen. On the partnership front, Siemens Telecom Networks has repurposed its EWSD Class 5 switch by integrating 3Com's Total Control Internet Gateway and making switching components modular.
"We've broken the switch down into a Chinese menu," says Pedro Calaco, senior product manager for IP telephony at Siemens. "You can choose the components you want. It can be a switch or just a server." Siemens has begun to demonstrate its new EWSD InterXpress solution and will begin trials with an unnamed telephone company in Europe next month. The product is scheduled to be commercially available this fall, Calaco says.
Taylor of USA Global Link says that provider is considering the Siemens platform for its network because of the 3Com connection. "We need a switch today, but it becomes a big hunk of metal once it's viable to deliver voice over IP end-to-end," Taylor says. "We don't want a stranded investment."
Like Siemens, Lucent and Nortel are promising to turn their Class 5 switches into voice servers and add data networking functionality. Rather than forge a partnership to get the data networking expertise they need, however, Lucent and Nortel are buying those smarts. Lucent acquired Livingston Enterprises Inc. (Pleasonton, Calif.) last year, and Nortel announced in March that it is buying Aptis Communications Inc. (Chelmsford, Mass.). As a result of the Livingston purchase, Lucent rolled out a carrier-class access concentrator in March that will be equipped with a VoIP interface early next year. Aptis is scheduled to deliver a VoIP interface later this year.
Among the CO switch vendors, Alcatel by far has the most powerful data networking ally: Cisco. The two suppliers announced their partnership a year ago. So far, that partnership has involved joint sales to service provider accounts, with each of the vendors providing its own products as part of the deal, says Larry Lang, vice president of service provider marketing at Cisco. But the companies also are working on some joint products, he says. Cisco also has been making acquisitions that help it address the carrier market. Last December, Cisco bought Lightspeed International Inc. (Sterling, Va.), a move that has allowed Cisco to incorporate Signaling System 7 (SS7) functionality in its gear.
Cisco is going to be a force to be reckoned with for companies like Ericsson, Lucent, Nortel, and Siemens, particularly as it begins to step up its push into the carrier space. Cisco plans to use next month's SuperComm '98 gathering in Atlanta to unveil a new service provider marketing initiative called New World Order. [Yikes...] Cisco isn't discussing the details of the initiative yet.
"We're about to reach the crossover point where data becomes the dominant traffic type," Lang says. "When you get to that point, it's time to look at a packet infrastructure and think about how to put voice on top of it."
Service agreements
In this brave new IP world, it's not just vendors that are making deals and buying their way into new markets. At least one of the new breed of public network providers has opted to buy the gateway technology it's going to need to bridge the gap between the public switched network and IP. Level 3, a facilities-based service provider started by former MFS Communications Co. Inc. chairman James Crowe and other MFS veterans, announced last month that it is acquiring XComTechnologies Inc. (Cambridge, Mass.), a competitive local exchange carrier (CLEC) and software developer with an SS7 VoIP gateway.
Not only is Level 3 getting the gateway technology it needs, but it also is getting CLEC status, which is necessary if a new service provider hopes to be allowed to interconnect with the SS7 network, says Ron Vidal, senior vice president of new ventures at Level 3. "All the talk these days is about peering agreements in the middle of the network," Vidal says. "No one is worrying about peering at the edge of the network, but that's the on-ramp for the public switched network."
Level 3 is constructing a nationwide fiber network completely free of circuit switches. The network will be built in phases over the next three years. In the meantime, the company inked a deal with Frontier Corp. (Rochester, N.Y.) to lease some of the fiber capacity that Frontier has purchased from Qwest. That deal will allow Level 3 to begin offering services such as private line data, Web hosting, and colocation before the end of the year. Level 3 plans to begin offering voice over IP service next year, Vidal says.
With the transition to an IP-based public network just getting started, there are many more questions than answers about how to phase out the circuit-switched network it's taken 100 years to build (see "No Wrong Answers--Yet"). It undoubtedly won't take 100 years to dismantle that network, but nearly everyone agrees it probably will take at least a decade for it to fade away.
Only one thing seems certain right now: The next five years will be the most tumultuous the communications industry has ever known. "Neither the Internet nor the public switched network is going to look the same," says Aberdeen Group's Taylor. "I don't know what they'll look like, but I know they won't look the same."
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