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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clarksterh who wrote (5401)	5/14/1998 12:31:00 AM
From: eabDad	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Clark: Yes, my use "nothing" was inaccurate, BUT ... The statement you made: < At some point the move to bigger memories will drive further shrinks. Period.> ... also misses the boat. Let me apologize first. In the following I sometimes SHOUT without intention. Imagine the words are bolded for emphasis only. (I still have to look up how to italize and bold words in SI). My point is this: While the linewidth shrinks and DRAM generations are "correlated" and even the decisions made in each can "influence" the decision of the other, the two market results are NOT "dependent" nor does one "drive" the other. Linewidth shrinks are driven by the need for MANUFACTURERS to reduce cost, nothing more. There are impacts of that movement, such as lower prices in the market. Manufacturers can TRY to make generation moves in DRAM (and they want to because the costs are reduced to an even greater degree eventually - not immediately), however somebody has to BUY it. Therefore generation moves in the market are DETERMINED by BUYERS, namely the PC guys. Right now, they only make their decision based on price per megabyte. Since these two (shrink dimension and bits per chip), while correlated, are driven by two independent sources and forces, there is no hard and fast formula that can describe which linewidth goes with which generation DRAM. The likely case will be that the lowest price per megabyte at 0.18 linewidth will be with the 64 mb DRAM. Will the lack of the acceptance of the 256 mb DRAM prevent the move to 0.18 micron? No. An thus, my orginal point. The move to 256 mb will be secondary to the move to 0.18 micron. Z