To: Chris who wrote (8521 ) 5/13/1998 10:37:00 AM From: Chris Respond to of 42787
Talk : Puts/Calls : Waiting for the big Kahuna | Previous | ------ | Respond | To: David Plonk (18437 ) From: James F. Hopkins Wednesday, May 13 1998 10:22AM ET Reply # of 18449 HI David: RE> I've found the best confirming indicator is DMI, which will issue you extremely reliable confirmation signals of a move in the S&P/OEX well before A/D's or New hi's/lows, will. Divergences in DMI to the price will also get you out of the move near the top/bottom if you watch closely, and of course the targets of the patterns usually gives you a fantastic profit taking/position reversing point. I've always found nearly everything else to be marginally helpful in pinpointing when to pull the trigger. And when I err, it's usually because I missed a pattern, flubbed a wave count, or fell asleep at the wheel as DMI screams at me to exit/reverse my position. So even with these terriffic tools, success is only assured by diligence and vigilance. Caffeine & ammonia, anyone? ------------------ I Like like that condition you place on success <ggg> I don't know what this DMI is so I can't argue with or critique taht in any way. I take it has to do with some sort of convergence and divergence (C/D) and if so I would like it if I knew what it was, as I mostly use (C/D) of one sort or another to get my picture. At least the shorter term ones. -------------------- If the DMI has to do with the divergence between derivatives ( futures and options ) and their underlying issues then I would like to get a handle on that, as that is the spread I picture the computer buy/sell programs working on..I'm just not up to speed on finding where that is. --------------------- What I'm using is more crude and perhaps not as short term, and often lacks the precise trigger points..except if by vigilance I get lucky enough to see an anomaly say in the tick or interest rates..which by the way if I track back this thread I have seen and called and posted a number of reversals at almost the exact time. But often did not at the time have the faith to pull the trigger at that moment and waited for conformation. Except I did go long on last Thursday at the close..against what I saw on this thread and hit that low right on. Were in the following exchange2000.com I was talking of an anomaly I saw on Wed April 22nd and should have pulled the trigger to short , as taht did signal the high but Bill was screaming wait..I shorted anyway by Friday the 24th but that was late..yet not bad..heck the thread was still screaming short on the 28th and I knew to close but waited too long again. We had about a 6% dip and I know most on this thread missed the biggest part, including myself by not being fast enough, and having real faith in the few signals I did understand. Lately my vigilance has not been as focused on the market as it has on the longs I took last Thursday. ---------------- I still haven got into playing the index options , yet I sense there is money in them and even posted one on the HFX that would have paid off big time had I had the guts to play it. WE need to move up some more with the Super caps to break out of what I've seen as a trading range, and we are so close to it that could happen today. It's to much of a coin toss for me to make a call with any conviction..but I did say last Sunday that I saw 60% we would wind up with a down week, and that may not happen..if we move on up I'll start looking for a new top but them doggone tops are harder for me to spot than the bottoms. I wish I did know more about your DMI as I have a gut feeling that it would be better than what I'm using. Jim