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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ocote who wrote (16869)	5/13/1998 9:42:00 PM
From: Ocote	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 79352

Correction--RSI 13 Model I wrote from work without really looking at the chart. The breakout is still iffy, and frankly I don't believe it can last. New highs on declining volume and declining A/D line do not spell another 20% runup in the indices. The model doesn't predict the duration of the breakout, and it could end the first time the breakout uptrend is retested, and ALL trendlines are retested. I'm playing this one cautiously, taking profits when they're given, both long and short. Ocote

To: Ocote who wrote (16869)	5/14/1998 2:39:00 AM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 79352

Ocote, Let's see...where to begin. Ok, India. Now, let's say you were India. You plan to detonate 5 atomic devices for some infantile reason. Let's also say that you are aware that such an act would bring disdain upon you from another country in whose stock market you had a bunch of your money invested. Would you "yank" a significant amount of that money out of said equities prior to detonation? Yer damn right you would. Being that you are an entire country (comprised of many financial institutions and a decent amount of well heeled and informed individuals and groups and investment entities), is it possible that such a yank would create a technical caution flag in that market? I believe that is what we saw. The Japan/Indonesia situation has likely been factored into the market. The Israel/US/Palistine situation is just too old to have not already been factored in. I also think that what the market is saying about India/Pakistan......../China situation is, "All this mutual fund inflow has to go somewhere". The advance/decline situation is still tenuous but the long term trend is still up. I realize you're chomping at the bit to take a bite out of some short term long positions. There still seems to be some safety along those lines. As I said when I first noticed the sell signal (most likely created by the Indian Yank Factor), long term long positions are still fine. Short term stuff must be taken on in accordance with one's own risk tolerance. Doug R