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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (8736)	5/13/1998 6:04:00 PM
From: Jeff Jordan	Respond to of 18691

CFON Roger, Right on the new issues. Same old company.<g> I wasn't able to get shares today. My broker said to call before open...I assume they bought a lot of shares today. Looks like it could run to maybe $16 again. I will buy on the way up...as shares are available. The last price I saw in AH was $10. Jeff

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (8736)	5/13/1998 6:10:00 PM
From: ralph keating	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Remember me, I was the CFON short holding out for the sub $2 range it's the whole internet thing remember EGGS these stocks peakout but only after 2-3 weeks and many fake-outs. also had held cephalon CEPH overnite for the fda approval fiasco WOW! rk

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (8736)	5/13/1998 11:56:00 PM
From: Lazlo Pierce	Respond to of 18691

Hmmm, even Cramer is starting to enunciate AMZN's shortcomings. ********************** Wrong! Rear Echelon Revelations: Cramer Asks: Is Amazon the Next Iomega? By James J. Cramer 5/13/98 4:05 PM ET Amazon.com (AMZN:Nasdaq): Faux Internet versus Internet. Which one is it? Of all the intellectual exercises out there, the true worth of Amazon.com intrigues me the most because I am not sure whether Amazon.com is the next Iomega (IOM:NYSE) or the next unassailable franchise. First, definitions. When I say next Iomega or son of Iomega, what I am talking about is the great-product-as-bad-stock formulation. Two years ago Iomega had an unbelievable product and a proud group of online sponsors. It also had vicious detractors who knew that Iomega made a commodity product that one day would have its margins cut to shreds. For a while there the bulls had it made in Iomega. They had the shorts crumpling, the longs tantalized and the bankers hooting and hollering. This stock went up everyday as shorts scrambled to find stock to be lent out and longs bid the stock up aggressively. My hat is off to anybody who stayed the course and got out at the top. Now we have that same dichotomy in Amazon. Anybody who has been to Amazon's site knows it inspires immediate loyalty. I love it. I can't tell you how many times I have bought the suggested books, just put them right into the cart. I read the reviews. I order. I get. For someone pressed for time, as I always am, you just can't beat Amazon. But we know, and it has not been disputed, that Amazon loses 20 cents on every book it sells. We know the company just borrowed a huge amount of money to finance expansion. We know that what Amazon offers is a commodity that could be replicated (read stolen) by Borders (BGP:NYSE) or Barnes & Noble (BKS:NYSE), old hands at this book selling stuff. We know that software will be invented that will price out books and send you to the lowest price available on the Net. To me that combination makes Amazon sound an awful lot like Iomega. Unless Amazon wins some sort of exclusive book seller contract or manages to buy Borders or Barnes & Noble with its own inflated stock, I don't see how this stock doesn't unravel at some point. But would I short it? Let me give you a couple of quick tips on shorting. I never ever short a company that could be on the cover of Business Week as one of the best-run companies in America, and Amazon is incredibly well-run. I also don't short stocks that are hard to borrow, meaning that you can't find stock that you need to do a short sale (see archives on why this is important). So in this case, my conclusion: I am an intellectual coward. I know I should be short this stock based on its business model. But I can't based on its branding and its momentum. Nevertheless, if it is an Iomega, we should see its true colors rather soon, as the life cycle of these kinds of stocks is about 18 months from bottom to short squeeze to legitimate top. In other words, much longer than the bears ever believed possible -- but it's not ever long enough for all the greedy bulls to get out.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (8736)	5/14/1998 8:27:00 AM
From: Allan F	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

RE CFON Does anyone know how many shares are being released in the convertible. Might they have all been converted yesteray? Think of it convert for under $3+ and sell for $8 or $9. I would venture an opinion that this is going to be another short squeeze fiasco. However, I can't convince myself to go long. Just too many others out there with a faster draw than me. -Allan

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (8736)	5/14/1998 11:44:00 PM
From: JEFF CHAPMAN	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 18691

For those interested: I ordered CD's over the weekend from CD Now (CDNW) and Music Blvd. (NTKI), I've received both CD's and am troubled by something. Both CD's arrived via 1st class mail from the EXACT same address (1280 Santa Anita Court Woodland CA 95776). Also, both CD's came with IDENTICAL shipping labels and, aside from different headers, IDENTICAL invoices! So I ask, if I had an internet sales concept, where valuations are somewhat cryptic, would I create multiple companies, allow for different web hosts to sponser non-identical retailers, cut my operating expenses in half, etc.... Should all public 'story stock' companies operate this way? Valuations would suggest yes. Neither short nor long, FWIW...