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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: H James Morris who wrote (4293)	5/13/1998 6:57:00 PM
From: J.S.	Respond to of 164687

These are all qualitative arguments both bullish and bearish. When a stock more than doubles in less than a year one needs to apply quatitative arguments. Every qualitative argument for AMZN is valid at some price in particular ones about its potential as a franchising technology company. The problem is that these companies are overvalued by most standard measures and then the stock doubles in a few weeks or months probably because of short covering. Supporters become greedy at this point and don't have the sense to see that the fundamentals have not improved enough to warrant the runup. Instead new modes of valuation are "invented" e.g. brand name multiple, market leader factors, sentimentality index. In fundamental analysis everything is potentially relevant but only in so far as it impacts profitability, a quantitative issue. Qualitative pleading is just that.

To: H James Morris who wrote (4293)	5/13/1998 7:54:00 PM
From: Mark Myword	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164687

HJ -re>> next unassailable franchise.<< I wouldn't get too hung up on his choice of words. I read the whole article , and he basically says Amazon looks like a great short when you consider their business model , prospects , competition, etc., HOWEVER , there is way too much hype , interest , momentum etc. to short at this time. The word franchise is meant to mean the space they occupy , not a mass-outlet deal. By the way , I agree with his assessment of the risk involved , as the longs and manipulators are having a Viagra experience with Amazon at the moment. Stay tuned for the inevitable wilting of this "sentiment".