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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: margie who wrote (4299)	5/13/1998 7:51:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 6136

Margie, at a glance these numbers look great. Although total scrips down, marketshare up. Refills down slightly also from 30940. Thanks. sf

To: margie who wrote (4299)	5/13/1998 8:33:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

Margie, thanks also for the info on the Oncology seminar. Now we have some dates to latch onto. With the moves I made this week, I'm all set until November. If we can close it above 45 by November expiration, I'll actually be in slight profit mode on the whole shabang. Above 40 will get me out of a huge hole. Thanks again for the information. sf

To: margie who wrote (4299)	5/14/1998 1:09:00 PM
From: Peter Singleton	Respond to of 6136

Folks, the April scrip data is all good news. Viracept continues to gain market share at .5 - 1.0% per month. Crixivan continues to lose share at .5 - 1.0% per month. Invirase + Fortovase are staying about the same. Norvir is gaining but less than Viracept (.1 - .5% per month). This means: - Viracept is continuing to gain acceptance. It would be interesting to know if the increases are equal across the prescribing physician deciles - Crixivan, despite MRK's marketing machinery and particular strength among the physicians who are not HIV/AIDS specialists, is losing market share - Norvir's gaining market share indicates increased acceptance of dual PI therapy, since Norvir is an inferior product in single-PI therapy. Increasing dual PI use is a long-term plus for Viracept, since it expands the market, for any given patient pool. While there's not as much dual PI data for Viracept, the data that exists is good. - Invirase+Fortovase not increasing market share is great news. This means that the market is judging Fortovase as inferior to Viracept as a single PI therapy, since it is just taking share from Invirase (same compound in hard gel formulation) and is being prescribed in combination with Norvir. This not only affects Viracept's prospects in the US, but even more so in the rest of the world. If Fortovase were equivalent to Viracept, Roche would have an incentive to push it over Viracept, but, as it appears Fortovase is inferior, Roche has an incentive to push Viracept as single therapy, and Fortovase + Viracept as combination therapy. I hesitate to say this, since often the market knows undisclosed information before I do (e.g., Thymitaq problems and Roche withdrawal), but I have to conclude there's a clear gap here between what an astute observer can puzzle out and what the market knows. It's apparent the PI market in the US will double or triple in the next 5 years. I see no reason why Viracept will not be the leading player in the US market in number of scripts over that period (30%+), with a dominant $market share (35-40%+). There's no data that supports an alternative conclusion, with the exception that it's hard to predict Amprenavir's market penetration. Will it be perceived as superior, equivalent, or inferior to Viracept (the then gold standard)? What added benefit will Glaxo's marketing machinery + ability to sell with AZT and / or 3TC have? Will it take share from Viracept, or from Crix/Norv/Fort (or from all of them). So, Viracept sales in the US over the next 5 years should double or triple, even with new entrants. Margins should continue to improve. No indication of pricing pressure over that time (if the market were price sensitive, then Crixivan would be gaining share from Viracept). The market outside of the US is at least the same size as the US, and Viracept has only minimal sales outside the US to date, so without doing the math to account for the difference in what AGPH receives from Viracept sales outside of the US, my guess is we're looking at at least a tripling of AGPH's Viracept revenues over the next 5 years. At minimum a $1B product, potentially $1.5B+. The market is ignoring that in their valuation. Peter