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Technology Stocks : Cerprobe (CRPB) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: raefon who wrote (158)	5/14/1998 2:29:00 AM
From: Herschel Rubin	Respond to of 201

Nice to have you back, Raefon (I assume you're dabbling in CRPB by the tone of your message). Volume yesterday (7400 shares) was paltry, but there was good volume at the open today. The $15 level seems to be a support level (don't you hate it when people say that?). Nevertheless, we're trading below last July's prices right now and CRPB is a bigger company with considerably more earnings potential than it was then. Are you going to the annual meeting on May 29th? I know you're in the area. I'm in Southern California and I won't be able to make it. My take on CRPB management is that they are quite conservative when it comes to pushing their stock. Their Q2 warning came on the heels of their Q1 Investor Relations road shows in which they had extolled the wonderful prospects for CRPB. Indeed, at the time of their road shows in NY and London, they had the wind in their sales (sails): Q1 had a fast start in the first month or two, according to their conf call. Immediately thereafter, they noticed a slowdown relating to the PC inventory problems. SO, they HAD to say something about Q2 to avoid the appearance of impropriety. Their Q2 warning may have been a strategic effort to protect their credibility after their investor relations efforts. Now that they've warned, if Q2 earnings are soft, at least they've covered their bases. If Q2 is better than soft, then they'll look good. (Anyhow, I'm sure you've already thought this thru...) I'm also convinced that management is not pleased that CRPB has traded down to the $15-$16 range after their Q2 remarks. Now that they've given their warning (and hence their form of a disclaimer), I wouldn't be surprised if they throw out some good tidbits in their annual meeting to encourage the stock to move to more reasonable levels. You mentioned the AZ company initiated CRPB with a buy. I think it is also significant that the 3 covering analysts consensus is a strong buy (1.0), having been upgraded from a 1.3 before the earnings release. Strange that Applied Materials reported much the same yesterday as CRPB did: Strong quarter earnings, but warned of softness. YET AMAT WENT UP 4% TODAY! Ditto for EGLS! I think CRPB is being unfairly punished. How's your pal, Linda?

To: raefon who wrote (158)	5/22/1998 5:30:00 PM
From: Herschel Rubin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 201

CRPB had a strong close on an otherwise weak day for techs. Finally, it closed on the day's high - a good sign. There were several buys just before the close that pushed CRPB up, but volume is admittedly meager. It just illustrates how little volume can push this stock up right now. With Monday being a holiday, there are just 3 trading days left until the annual meeting May 29th. Whether or not the company confirms a Q2 slowdown during its annual meeting, the uncertainty will be removed. IMHO the slowdown is more than fairly priced in the stock as it is now trading at a PE of 15 against trailing twelve month earnings. Next week, we may see some decent action in CRPB. A lot of the techs are down to "oversold" levels and at some point, market psychology may shift into buying mode, perhaps after the preannouncement season.