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Technology Stocks : Orckit (ORCT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: srvhap who wrote (1172)	5/13/1998 11:27:00 PM
From: IngotWeTrust	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1998

[FTEL] Probably the most knowledgeable person I know of who is up on FTEL is an ole retired baseball mgr named Brad Driessen. He labors very hard in his retirement years to keep a FTEL faithflock up to date on every FTEL nuance. His e*mail address is: giles@erinet.com Tell him, Ole Prospector sent'cha and you'll make it onto his daily update list, free of charge. FTEL's mgmt is ONE company who has tried very hard as I recall to stay in touch with their shareholders, or potential shareholders. At least it usta be that way. Good due dilly, O/49r

To: srvhap who wrote (1172)	5/14/1998 5:56:00 PM
From: savolainen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1998

[bt/wstl] hi tom, as far as i can tell the london trial refered to by wstl is the same trial that was mentioned last fall by wstl... seems that the trial may have been delayed... so this news seems to be essentially a re-release with addition of the wstl/ftel relationship.. the london trial itself is approx 2000 lines...... and from last fall... wstl is supplying dslams that support "either CAP or DMT"... my guess is fuji is working with wstl for the cap stuff being used in the trials... i seem to remember alcatel was doing the dmt end.. press releases from the fall of last year had the trial (w.london) starting in late 97 and ending early 98 with deployment to follow... this feb bt was saying... "it will be mounting a major trial of ADSL services in West London later this year, working closely with suppliers Fujitsu and Alcatel..." search.bt.com with deployment now 99, looks like everything has slipped about a year... sure hope orctf is on top of the g.lite stuff... note in the above press release... "..Evaluation of DSL Lite equipment is already well advanced, and BT will begin tests in the UK as soon as production prototypes are available..." as far as how ftel/wstl compares to fujitsu/orctf... am inclined to think that the orctf relationship is rather more significant.. but then i'm probably biased and we'll have to wait to see how this plays out... as you know, orctf is jointly developing silicon with fujitsu microelectronics, and has a strategic marketing and development alliance for north america with fujitsu network communications, and the latest relationship with fujitsu limited was described again as a strategic alliance (for asia and europe) and will involve not only fujitsu selling orctf products but also joint product development and integration of orctf technology into end-to-end systems... (would think that ftel would be involved with marketing these jointly developed products) i didn't see any reference to joint product development or integration of wstl technology into fujitsu systems... should we hear of such, there might be cause for concern regarding the integrity of the orctf/fujtisu relationship.. but at first glance it sounds like fuji is just working with wstl in those markets where it gives them an edge... in essence wstl and fujitsu are agreeing to "cooperate and pursue ... market opportunities"... nonexclusively.. and at the top of the list is bt... we still don't know how much of bt fujitsu will get vs alcatel (others?)... if fujitsu ends up with a significant portion of a rollout...will be interesting to see if orctf is introduced... personally would not be particularly surprised, but it may be down the road a little ways.. maybe wstl has a lock on the eventual bt deployment... but it seems more likely that things are a little more open than that.. if rollout is dmt with a significant component of g.lite... am inclined to think orctf might have a shot (integrated fujitsu/orctf equipment)...my prejudice shows again...at least would think the door might be open a crack...... enuf of that.... guess we'll have to wait for news... also bt has looked at orctf vdsl... so that could be another wedge in the door... ---- as far as the meat to gte... right now am inclined to take gte at their word... that the deployment is for real... guess we'll just have to wait and see ... what it will all mean to orctf margins is another question... but a slower rampup to start is better for margins til new silicon and other cost savings measures can be implemented.. guess in the big picture.... market/mind share is probably worth shaving things close... doesn't seem likely that gte will drop fujitsu (supplier of the year) and it doesn't seem likely that fujitsu will drop orckit... 10 to 50,000 lines this year with serious ramp-up next year sounds fine to me... did you notice that orctf earnings estimates have been revised down significantly for the year? looks like all this r&d at the same time as aggressively chasing/getting deployments is catching up to the bottom line... would be nice to see em back in the black.. thought we were gonna be there this year but latest consensus is now -.69 (.67 for next)... last i remember it was on the order of .40 for 98... that's a pretty significant swing.. using some crude math looks like orctf might burn another $8 mil this year... Does anyone have the latest revenue estimates for 98 and maybe 99? net by qtr would be interesting too... see ya s