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Technology Stocks : Ericsson overlook? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Diogeron who wrote (1604)	5/14/1998 8:10:00 AM
From: P2V	Respond to of 5390

TO ALL -Thanks ! -- Anybody know what this conference is all about ?? Ericsson, Intel, Nokia, IBM and Toshiba will host a joint press conference 20th of May in San Jose, London and Tokyo. What will it be? A breakthrough technology says the invitation. Nokia gained today 1.7% against a falling tech market - awesome showing by the handset king. Dataquest is forecasting Nokia to become the market leader by the end of the year. NOKIA TO RULE THIS YEAR Ericsson should also take over Motorola, which is falling to the distant number three position. We expect the combined market share of the three to rise for the next 3-4 years. Another proof of Nokia gaining ground is a study Herschel Associates. It shown that Nokia already has 69% distribution coverage among US handset retailers. MOT has the top slot with 96%, Ericsson as the third with 41%. Nokia and Sony have been the fastest gainers during the last two years (KL). Herschel also expects Nokia to become numero uno this year. NEXTEL DEAL NEXT Nokia's recent deal with Ma Bell will help Nokia to get market share for its new dual-band 6100 series phone. And if one is to believe the rumor mill, Nokia will also get a Nextel deal soon. As Nextel is one of the driving forces to digitalize America, this deal would be a grand succ‚ for Nokia. A SMALL HANDSET GUY TO MODEL PORTFOLIO We will buy Benefon to our new Finland / Emerging Europe model portfolio. Benefon is a tiny handset manufacturer selling mostly analog phones. It has NMT and AMPS technologies in its portfolio as well as a GSM phone. Benefon came too late to the market with its 1st generation GSM, a fact that has made its stock (BENE.HE, FIM58) a real dog. The stock is extremely cheap, reflecting markets disbelief to company's success with GSM. The company had more than 9 Fim per share in R&D alone last year. EPS was 5.88 and this year the median estimate is 9.8 Fim. At 5.9 times current year earnings and at 0.8 times sales the downside should be quite limited. CHEAPO - BUT RISK IS HIGH, AT LEAST LONGER TERM P/Gfl, so called growth flow ratio, is only 3.1. It is derived by dividing Price with (EPS + R&D per share). The company is making high margins by selling analog phones to Asia, Africa and most notably to Eastern Europe. Benefon handsets have sleek design but the current GSM phone is too heavy and big. We are expecting the company to launch a new GSM phone within couple of months. Currently no visitors are allowed to manufacturing premises, which could foreshadow a not too distant launch of a new GSM phone. With long term view, Benefon should find a major league partner - it will not have resources to scope with the benefits-of-scale biz environment. The could gain 20-30% in anticipation of the GSM launch. Buying 100 units of Benefon at 58 Fim. osaketieto.com OsakeTieto