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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike McFarland who wrote (635)	5/13/1998 11:45:00 PM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 2578

I cannot find anything about Dell at this link, stocksite.com maybe the content at this address has already been changed... There was this morning (Aus time) it's buried deep in the text. What I like about being bearish on Dell, having considered Amazon and Microsoft and Excite, is that it seems to be the business which is the easiest to copy, the most difficult to defend, and the most over-rated--of these four, very overvalued stocks. Exactly - Microsoft has more or less unique products with strong monopolistic power on some of them. Amazon has few online competitors as yet in it's area. Dell just sells computers very well. But there isn't much monopolistic power in that and so super-profits should remain for too long. probably likely to drop much faster than any index.. Dell's beta is around 1.9, MSFT only 1.27. Unisys is another target to think of - similar beta to DELL and much weaker financially. Not quite as overvalued though. We are probably anywhere from a few months to a couple years from that inflection point. Big chance it is in the 1-2-3 month range. Well I made money in the last month shorting MSFT and then blew it all trying to short DELL. David

To: Mike McFarland who wrote (635)	5/13/1998 11:49:00 PM
From: Thorr	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2578

The reason DELL should be a good short soon is the Business sucks. CPQ is hurting-They are attempting to dump product everywhere. they had 50 days inventory at year end- they said they would get to 14 days instead they had to go to 60days to break even for last qtr they have spending freeze on. they shut their houston plant down for two weeks cold turkey everyone is hurting in this pc bus. but the wall st spin boys are pumping this hype machine. do any smart mgrs own this stock? mostly retail buyers but they are the smart ones for now my secretary makes 100% on her money she didn't know what a stock was 1 year ago up is down down is up. even taking the spin boys #s Dell won't make the market cap in well over 100 years if you count the value of the stock options they give away.

To: Mike McFarland who wrote (635)	5/14/1998 8:24:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2578

<<What I like about being bearish on Dell, having considered Amazon and Microsoft and Excite, is that it seems to be the business which is the easiest to copy, the most difficult to defend, and the most over-rated>> Mike. I remember reading the same about MCI when it began challenging AT&T, when MCI was trading above 60 times earnings and new entrants were coming aboard each week. MCI kept moving up. Access to the internet is changing the way many analysts are beginning to look at box makers. If the Dell model was so easy to copy, MUEI would have been as successful. Although Gateway has done well stockwise, their systems do not compete well against Dell systems for the business market.